NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,498
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« on: November 04, 2016, 12:49:32 AM » |
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I could jump in and say that the polls of Texas are trash, but once again it looks like RV/LV screens here are creating significantly different scenarios, especially in some state with a high proportion of Latino voters (Just look at polls from Cali showing it anywhere between a C+15 and C+25 margin).
In the modern political era where the polling industry is under major stress to actually be able to contact real voters, it is not unexpected to see major outliers increase even among legit polling organizations.
How will Texas/Georgia/Arizona actually vote in November?
TX and AZ are arguably the biggest wildcards, namely as a result of a surge in Latino registration and turnout....
GA is a bit less likely to shift significantly, but there are a ton of people that don't pick up their cell-phones that are more likely to be Millennials and "minorities"....
I still think TX will end up 4-7 T, AZ Tossup (C+1), and GA 1-2T....
A bunch of the weird polling we are seeing this year is likely connected to how the traditional polling organizations have not yet been able to adapt to connect with actual voters as a result of a dramatic shift in technology and communication patterns over the past 10 years.
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