i don't think trump is going to be higher than +6.
Texas? After the FBI revelations? Keep dreaming friend.
Epic... (long sigh)
The deal with Texas is that it has long been one of the worst states in our great nation in terms of voter turnout.
The 2016 Presidential Election has created an unprecedented level of new voter registration and turnout levels, especially among working-class Latinos, that in Texas typically vote about 80-20 Democrat in Presidential Elections.
Meanwhile Middle and Upper-Class Latinos, that typically vote more like 55-45 at the Presidential level, and frequently Republican in Statewide and local elections, are likely breaking heavily Democratic
(Just like we saw in California in the Mid 1990s after Prop 189).
Latinos in Texas are less focused on the Clinton "email scandals" than rejecting Trump as a Republican candidate who peddles in negative stereotypes of Latino-Americans, and Mexican-Americans in particular, who are the overwhelming majority of Texas Latinos.
Now, you could make a decent argument that these "revelations" might have a bit of an impact in the Anglo communities in the suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, but fundamentally Republicans have basically maxed out the Anglo vote in Texas to a point where there is nowhere to go but up for Democrats.
The question has never really been "Will Clinton win Texas" but rather "How close will it be" and yes it looks like some ancestral Republicans are coming home in Texas, but this state will likely be much closer than most observers expected on November 8th, as I predicted quite a few months back.
