Yes. The suburbs are showing significant movement to the DFL while in legislative races some western MN districts have flipped Republican since 2010 (they moved towards the DFL in 2004, 2006, and 2008, then heavily GOPward in 2010, then flipped back somewhat in 2012 then flipped again slightly in 2014).
I'd say it's very likely that Nolan keeps his seat with the real possibility that MN-2 flips to the DFL making the delegation 6-2 Dem. on top of that, there is a decent chance the state house flips back to the DFL with some gains in rural areas complemented by gains in the Twin Cities.
At that point the DFL would control 6 of 8 house seats, all statewide offices, both senate seats, and both houses of the legislature. And the GOP will still be talking about MN trending R.
Minnesota reminds me a bit of Oregon, in that if one looks at maps for close Senate and Statewide elections (Although the Republicans haven't won a statewide office since 2002), it can still be extremely competitive IF the Republicans can actually compete successfully in the suburbs of the main Metro area AND max out their numbers "downstate", although relatively few actual counties flip back and forth over the years.
I mean, even if we look at 2000, and the closest Presidential election in MN in decades, you see almost all counties going for Bush Jr. , but Gore narrowly winning solely on the backs of Minneapolis-St Paul, but losing the suburban counties by a much narrower margin than in statewide elections where a Republican candidate won.
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