TX-University of Houston: Trump +3

[NOVA Green]

3 polls in the last week showing Texas as a single digit race. This is real life, lol. Until there's polls showing Clinton ahead, it's not a swinger, but wow.

What's interesting is that this isn't really reflective of the national race. Texas was, what, R+20 last time? Hillary is up, but she isn't up that much. Something else is going on here.

Texas Latino Republican voters are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves this year, educated professionals in the cities and suburbs of DFW, Houston, SA, and Austin are swinging hard towards Clinton, and evangelical types have little stomach or enthusiasm for Trump and aren't crazy about voting in November.

[NOVA Green]

3 polls in the last week showing Texas as a single digit race. This is real life, lol. Until there's polls showing Clinton ahead, it's not a swinger, but wow.

What's interesting is that this isn't really reflective of the national race. Texas was, what, R+20 last time? Hillary is up, but she isn't up that much. Something else is going on here.

Texas Latino Republican voters are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves this year, educated professionals in the cities and suburbs of DFW, Houston, SA, and Austin are swinging hard towards Clinton, and evangelical types have little stomach or enthusiasm for Trump and aren't crazy about voting in November.

Yep, that sounds like the recipe, lol. 538 just put an article up discussing Texas. Basically, they were saying what is happening in Texas is actually a regional phenomenon - Trump is doing about 10 points worse in the whole south compared to Romney, plus a larger Clinton lead than Obama had. Trump has traded this for some gains in the Northeast and Midwest though. Might not pay off electorally, but it is interesting.

I'm actually starting to think that Denton County is going to look more like Tarrant County does now (55-45 Republican) with Collins County not far behind.

We could actually see some extremely weird results from Montgomery County outside of Houston that went 80% Republican in '08 and '12 looking more like a 58-62% Republican County.

[NOVA Green]

There are actually more undecided Dems and indies (11% and 29% respectively) than Republicans (8%) in this poll

Latino Millennials as I have posted elsewhere are the biggest Bernie supporters still holding out.

Regardless of how much many of them hate and despise Trump, Obama still has a rep as the "deporter in Chief" and Clinton is now running for the 3rd term of Obama.... right or wrong it is a fact.

I'll probably get placed on ignore from many people on the forum, but I have been saying this consistently since the Democratic Primaries.