WA/NE-Emerson (pre-debate): Clinton +6 in WA, Trump +27 in NE

[NOVA Green]

What utterly bizarre states to pair together in a poll.

Emerson belongs in a garbage can, not a poll average.

Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can.

[NOVA Green]

I would imagine that certain states, Washington top of the list, would be particularly bad for landline only polls. The more "young, techy, and urban" the state, the less representative landlines would be.

I would also imagine that in "Safe D" places like Washington state, there will be greater defection to 3rd party candidates, that come more heavily from the Obama coalition than the Romney coalition.

I still find it hard to believe that Stein will outperform Nader's 2000 4.1% vote share in Washington State.

[NOVA Green]

If WA is so close(5.8% margins). it could be #battlegroundOregon as I said before?

I think the days of Oregon being only 0-2 points left of national margin  (Bush '00 and '04) are long gone.  Portland metro is just too big vs the rest of the state now.

Even with a absolute best case scenario for Trump (winning +5 nationally), my guess is he still loses OR by 2-3 points.

If Trump wins a squeaker nationally, I think OR will still be Clinton +6 to +8.  100% vote by mail here helps keep that dominant Portland D turnout up in all scenarios.

Portland metro growth doesn't account for most of Oregon's swing.  The Portland metro counties went from 55.8% of the state's votes in 2004 to 57.0% in 2012.  Oregon voted D+4.2 in 2004.  If you simply account for the vote growth of the Metro area versus the rest of the state, without any change in voting patterns within either portion, Oregon would have voted only D+4.5 in 2012.  It voted D+12.1, so obviously an increasingly Metro-heavy electorate is nowhere near the main factor.

Instead, the shift was because voters statewide became more Democratic.  Non-metro Oregon moved from R+9.2 in 2004 to R+3.2 in 2012, for a swing of D+6.0.  Metro Oregon moved from D+21.9 to D+31.3, for a swing of D+9.5.  It was a change in what the votes were, not where the votes came from, that drove Oregon's shift toward the Democrats.

Also, I know you weren't claiming otherwise, but Oregon has voted entirely vote-by-mail since 1999, before the close 2000 and 2004 elections.

This is true.....

Although Metro PDX has swung towards the Democrats since 1988, mainly driven by not only Multnomah County becoming overwhelmingly Democratic, and the Washington County "Burbs" (Beaverton, Hillsboro, Tigard, etc...) shifting rapidly in 20 years from being a solidly Republican County in '88 to a solidly Democratic County by 2012, there are other patterns at work as well.

Downstate Oregon initially swung heavily towards the Republican Party in the early 1990s, as a result of the "Timber Wars" and an increased upstate/downstate dynamic where there was a stereotype of "urban environmentalist versus resource dependent communities....

This was part of the major reason that Oregon only narrowly went for Gore in 2000, and Kerry won the state by only 4.2% in '04 (A much poorer performance than Mike Dukakis back in '88!!!).

In recent election cycles Democrats have significantly improved their performance in many regions of downstate Oregon over the past few cycles, in particular Jackson (Medford) and Deschutes (Bend) Counties have gone from being solidly Republican bastions 20 years ago to become swing counties today.

Although Linn (Albany) and Douglas (Roseburg) were 47% Dukakis counties have underperformed statewide swings, that has been counterbalanced by major swings towards the Democratic Party in parts of Coastal Oregon (Clatsop & Lincoln), and most importantly Marion County, which used to be a Lean Republican County now moving into more of a toss-up category in '08 and '12.

[NOVA Green]

Portland metro growth doesn't account for most of Oregon's swing.

No, I didn't say that.  Almost nothing to do with population growth.  But everything to do with the size of Portland's vote and the degree to which it goes Democrat.  Perhaps stated more clearly, Democrats are running up much larger margins in the Portland metro area than they did 20 years ago, too much for the rest of the state to make up for.

Look at Multnomah county, the most urban county in the state and the highest raw turnout.  It's gone from voting for Clinton in the high 50% range to Obama in the high 70% range.

Same for Lane county, which is dominated by Eugene.  Gore won it +11, Obama won it +27 and +23.  There are pockets of rural Oregon that went about 5 points more for Obama than Bush, but for the most part, rural Oregon is just as Republican as it was 20 years ago.

And whatever definition you're using for "non-metro" seems likely broken.  The next biggest areas of D gains (behind urban Portland) in Oregon are Eugene and the Portland suburbs/exurbs, like Beaverton, Hillsboro, Wilsonville, etc.  Since it appears you don't live here, I'll forgive you for not understanding how ridiculous it would be to define Eugene or Hillsboro as non-metro areas.

Sir Mux,

I respectfully disagree with your comments regarding Lane County as a fellow Oregonian.... 

Although "Metro Eugene" accounts for a majority of the county population and votes, this is fundamentally more Southern Oregon than Willamette Valley, let alone Metro PDX.

Additionally, the City of Eugene has long been a Democratic stronghold since the Vietnam era, it only accounts for 30% of the population.

Lane County was long one of the major timber processing regions in the state, as I well remember as a young child (Downstate kid) from back in the early '80s. These were union mills, and you can go from outer West Eugene to River Road, to Springfield, and these are places that became much more Democratic over the past 20 years. Springfield was a city most known in the early '90s as a stronghold of the Oregon Citizens Alliance (OCA) that tried to push through a bill allowing discrimination against gays and lesbians.... those times are now long gone.

Additionally, rural Lane County still accounts for 25-30% of the vote and has not exhibited any dramatic swing towards the Republican Party (unlike Douglas County to the South), and although I don't have the '88 precinct numbers at my fingertips (Junked them during a move 10 years ago...   ) I believe that "rural" Lane county still votes marginally Democratic and most likely by a higher margin than in '88.

[NOVA Green]

I look forward to moving back home to Clackamas County and trying to do my part in turning it from its stubbornly Republican (compared to Washington and Multnomah) ways.

Clackamas is a trip, and  although I still don't feel like I have a total grasp on it, you have this weird scene where one of the wealthiest cities in Oregon Lake Oswego becoming heavily Democratic in '08 and '12, similar to trends in places like Gladstone and West Linn, and also old blue collar working-class places like Oregon City and Milwaukie....

Even if you adjust out the "rural" parts of the county much of the Republican base these days is actually in fast growing expensive exurban communities like Happy Valley and Damascus, and the Uninc areas around them....

Thinking its more like upper-middle class types that want "more house" and longer commute, since it doesn't appear that Blue Collar types are abandoning the Dem Party in Clack. and there has been Dem growth in wealthy and upper-middle class cities closer to the City.

Thoughts???