ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 28, 2024, 07:13:22 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2  (Read 1949 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,514
United States


« on: September 25, 2016, 12:37:04 PM »

Gender gap in this poll is 38 points(!):

men
Trump 54%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

women
Clinton 55%
Trump 36%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

breakdown by party:

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 8%
Johnson 1%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 90%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Independent
Trump 43%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

by region:

Midwest
Trump 48%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%


Northeast
Clinton 60%
Trump 30%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 50%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

West
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%



Those MidWest and West numbers should be concerning for Team Clinton, considering Dem dominance on the Pacific Coast and Illinois that buff those two regional numbers...
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,514
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 12:56:09 PM »

Those MidWest and West numbers should be concerning for Team Clinton, considering Dem dominance on the Pacific Coast and Illinois that buff those two regional numbers...

In what respect for the Western numbers? They do not seem that bad. Johnson/Stein are pulling from Clinton there, while Trump is doing 1 point worse than Romney did. It's not ideal I suppose but she still seems OK in CO/NM/West Coast. NV is playing hard to get so far.

For that region I'd only really be worried if Trump/Republicans were doing better than in 2012, or if Clinton was doing so bad she was nearing their numbers due to 3rd party losses.

Fair point regarding 3rd Party support in the West...

I'm a bit more concerned about CO than some, although granted much of Trump's improvement in the state has come from bringing the Republican holdouts around, and Clinton still has some room to grow with Millennials there that have been an elusive target, and play a major role in that state's electorate.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,514
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 01:06:55 PM »

Fair point regarding 3rd Party support in the West...

I'm a bit more concerned about CO than some, although granted much of Trump's improvement in the state has come from bringing the Republican holdouts around, and Clinton still has some room to grow with Millennials there that have been an elusive target, and play a major role in that state's electorate.

We'll have to see how CO fairs a couple weeks from now.

Something worth considering is the election law changes Democrats passed in 2013, which instituted a mail-in voting system where all active registered voters receive a ballot in the mail, and there is in-person voting/same day voter registration, but in-person voting centers are more limited than they were in 2012 due to the mail component.

Democrats obviously did it at least in part for partisan gain, and same-day registration will help with minorities/Millennials, but I think the unforeseen consequences of mail voting is that it brought more old people into the mix, who are still heavily Republican in CO.

Less in-person polling places + more older voters due to mail, with Millennials more likely to change addresses and thus not get mail ballots means Democrats might have given Republicans an advantage by accident.

Curious to see how this plays out!

Vote-by-Mail (VbM) has been in places in Oregon for decades now and generally has increased overall turnout, and now there is a new automatic voter registration for new drivers in places as well.

But yes, changing the system might be confusing for some. Not sure about CO, but out here you just drop it in one of many ballot boxes scattered around each county, so one doesn't even need a stamp, and it takes much less time than going to a polling places for the lazier voters, or people without spare time, or odd work schedules, etc...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 13 queries.