Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6

[NOVA Green]

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".

[NOVA Green]

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".

I think we're gonna see a poll dump from Monmouth soon, which will show Clinton recovering and backing up the +5 margin.

Any idea of when Monmouth will dump? Haven't seen anything about this on the polling update thread....