FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5 (user search)
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  FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5  (Read 4137 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« on: September 20, 2016, 02:40:32 PM »

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,530
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 03:12:58 PM »

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.

They jumped in the field 2 days after NYT Upshot/Siena was done, so this might even show a growing trend for Clinton here.

I believe the positive aspect of the "deplorables" comment is now starting to kick in for Clinton, based on this poll and a few others.

The immediate effect was obviously negative, but the Trump campaign's criticism of that comment is now facing backlash in the form of increased support for Clinton, from her supporters.

I think a 4 day discussion on birtherism was main reason the numbers have started to move.

This is entirely possible, especially considering Obama's extremely high approval numbers, and even a huge number of Republicans believing that this was a politically motivated shift in position, and not his actual attitudes. We'll need to wait a few more days to see if this trend continues, and even then there is a potential wildcard/distortions as a result of the NY/NJ terror story news cycle.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,530
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 03:39:05 PM »

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

that didn't stop the red avatars (or the homosexual wisconsinite) from crapping all over the iowa and nevada monmouth polls.

All I am saying is that this poll and it's senate race is off by a decent number compared to all other florida polls taken in september. PPP and nate cohn's pollster aren't exactly duds, and neither is CNN.

Marty--- this is factually inaccurate (Bolded relevant sentence). I went through and reread all of the Red Avatar posts regarding Monmouth-IA poll, and the reality is that the vast majority of posters weren't "crapping over Monmouth polls", but rather collectively "crapping their pants" over an incredibly strong performance for Trump from a high quality polling firm.

In fact many red avatars, and whatever unknown "homosexuals" from various states on the forum (Insert bizarre comment that you made) went to a point where many were positing Team Clinton should maybe scale down resources in Iowa and shift to other states....

As I stated earlier, I would much rather take an A+ pollster than junk polling firms to reflect an accurate picture within a fixed period of time.  Personally, I think FL has now shifted to a slight Clinton lead, but there are many unknowns with voting models and polling assumptions in states with fast growing net inmigration/outmigration regarding what the actual composition of the electorate will be come November.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,530
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 03:51:41 PM »

Why hasn't fraudster Nate Silver added this poll to the 538 database? Odd, he has added in the Monmouth poll showing Trump up 8 in Iowa, but he hasn't added in the Monmouth or St Leo polls that have Clinton up 5 in Florida. Is Nate being bought out by his corporate RNC buddies?

He has added both polls.

For some reason, the most recent polls don't pop up at the top of the list. Monmouth is the 6th item down I believe and St Leo is I believe even further down.

Makes it really annoying when trying to go through multiple states... Sad
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,530
United States


« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 03:59:47 PM »

For some reason, the most recent polls don't pop up at the top of the list.

They're sorted by weight.

Look for the little gray circles on the left for the most recently added polls.

ty for that tip fellow Oregonian. Smiley
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