Monmouth is a very good pollster, so even though this seems like a stretch, maybe Trump is struggling in Missouri. I think he'd have to lose by nearly 10% to actually lose it, but stranger things have happened in this election cycle.
I will also note that the Nate Silver/538 adjusts for house effects all indicate a +1 Trump lead.
My thought is that if national margins remain relatively static through November, this will be a horserace come election night with GOTV playing the main decider in the state.
Missouri is definitely much closer than it was in 2012. No post-convention poll in Missouri had Romney leading by less than 3 points. Most of the polls ranged from Romney +6 to +14 (he won by 9.4)
True.... this is looking a lot more like '08 than '12 in MO.
Wishing we had more cross-tab breakdowns by region on some of these state polls (Insert subsample standard deviation comment here) to see if, statewide breakdowns are mirroring national numbers that indicate a collapse of Republican Presidential support among college educated White voters.
Assuming Trump overperforms in SW and SE MO, then this would indicate Jefferson County flipping and by larger than Obama '08 margins, collapse of Republican leaners in St Louis County, and a somewhat close race in St Charles County.
