Interesting article/analysis from the OC Register....
I'm tempted to say that this could well be the year that it flips.... although Trump outperformed his statewide numbers, you still have 11% that voted Kasich that have been the toughest nut to crack for Trump in consolidating the Republican base.
Most of the NPPs didn't request Dem or Rep ballots, but Dems beat the Reps significantly in the '16 primary total vote count, with many non-Trump supporters sitting it out.
I think there will likely be a significant surge of new voters once GE season heats up, with Dems and Dem leaning NPPs benefiting the most...
Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric cuts both ways in OC in terms of mobilizing non-regular voters (Dem leaning) but also playing to the SoCal wealthier Anglo crowd that don't see any contradiction between putting up a giant wall to stop crime and illegal immigration, while simultaneously having everything from their landscaping, cleaning services, child care, and home renovation work performed by hard-working and long established local residents whose paperwork might well be out of status....
I'll go out on a limb and call it a narrow Hillary win 49-48-3 only because the Republican candidate will dramatically increase turnout of the Dem Base and some of the Kasich and Cruz Republicans will stay home...
Poll
