Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

These counties have completed their canvass (CCC)

Alameda
Alpine
Butte
Calaveras
Colusa
Glenn
Lassen
Madera
Mariposa
Modoc
Mono
Monterey
Napa
Orange
Plumas
San Francisco
Shasta
Sierra
Solano
Tehama
Trinity
Yuba

Good start, but here is an update of where we are today not only in terms of CC, but also where counties are at based upon their "official certifications" and also the official reports regarding existing outstanding ballots yet to be counted.

[NOVA Green]

Are all the other states done counting their ballots?  Judging by how everyone seems focused on California. 

Ok--- haven;t been following the other states since Election Day, but I would imagine that at most there are 500 remaining ballots not yet counted and certified combined in New Mexico. Montana, and South Dakota, versus hundreds of thousands in Cali, so would imagine that at most there might be a 0.1% shift in margins in those states with no chance of a even a county flip so....

Haven't been following NJ too closely, and I'm sure there is interesting shifts between ED and today, but states that count basically 99% of their votes on election day, are usually less interesting to follow than states that still have over 50% of the vote out after election day and it takes a month to finally count the votes.

[NOVA Green]

Getting into the end-zone and a bunch of counties are dumping final results and trying to complete counting prior to the Holiday Weekend and make sure they are keeping track to certify on or before 7/7/16 as per state law...

I didn't update yesterday since there were only a handful of counties reporting but the current update is"

1.) LA County- 28.7k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie). According to the LA County website there are approximately 62k total ballots remaining.... so if 37k are valid Dem ballots it should break down about (21-16k Bernie) using a conservative estimate.

2.) San Diego County- 11.1k Dem Ballots (66-34 Bernie). Valid Dem Provisionals are slightly lower than my estimate, but overall percentage and total vote margins well exceed estimates, with about 15k provisionals yet to be counted.

3.) Mendocino-11k Dem Late VbMs and provisionals (70-30 Bernie). Total Dem votes and margins exceeded forecast and will need to revise Humboldt, Lake and Sonoma County estimated numbers.

4.) Sacramento- 9.3k Dem Ballots (65-35 Bernie). Well exceeds forecast model for final provisional ballots, and could bode extremely well for Placer County final results.

5.) San Joaquin- 5.7k Dem ballots (57-43 Bernie). Overall % as valid dem provisionals slightly lower than expected, but slightly exceeded on margins.

6.) Stanislaus- 4.8k Dem Ballots (67-33 Bernie). Raw Dem votes and margins exceeded forecast.

7.) Kern- 3.9k Dem Ballots (62-38 Bernie). Significantly exceeded forecast margin.

8.) Marin- 3.8k Dem Ballots (56-44 Bernie). Honestly I thought Marin was done, as they haven't been the best county in the state to keep current, so basically is a shift on the margins more than anything.

9.) Monterey/Napa/SLO- Basically close out with about 4k Dem votes and all balanced out were roughly 50-50.

Will need to review data further to assess margin calls, and we should have another chunk of votes tomorrow as California counties scramble to try to get their numbers close to final before the Holiday Weekend.

[NOVA Green]

Bottom line Bernie is still going to lose by a significant margin and the big picture does not change at all.

He might make the county map in CA greener. But yeah. At this point, it's a matter of maybe 10 delegates at the most.

These are both true statements, and yes the primary season is over and Hillary won Cali by a decent margin...

Still, I enjoy following and watching the final votes trickle in, and once we start getting real final county precinct level numbers, it will be interesting to look at the similarities and differences between the Obama/Hillary '08 electoral coalitions and Bernie/Hillary '16 electoral coalitions in the largest and arguably the most solidly Democratic State in the Union.

I'm actually a little surprised we haven't seen more discussions of many other primary states, where all votes have been counted, results certified, precinct level data is available, and there could be detailed maps showing the strength and weaknesses of the Hillary coalition in GE swing states in particular.

I seem to recall in '08 there were multiple detailed threads and maps for various states and counties that dissected Dem Primary data into a visual format. Maybe it's because Alcon doesn't post here as often anymore...

[NOVA Green]

Clinton 53.4% - 2,710,258
Sanders 45.7% - 2,321,852

#marginunder400k




The remaining counties will be hard at work next week, with at least 287,000 votes still to be reported.

Ok.... getting down to the wire with an additional 20k Dem ballots counted yesterday, not yet updated in the official numbers (Contra Costa, Nevada, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, and Sutter), and likely Riverside Counties update late last night in the system not included in your numbers above...

Currently looking like (Unofficial but based on updated official counties numbers):

Clinton: 53.3% -  2,719,340
Sanders: 45.8% - 2,339,947

Also, based upon LA County finalizing results with what appears to be most likely a gap between their official press releases for outstanding ballots where there were ~62k Total stated remaining after the last update on 6/29 and only 12.2k Valid Dem ballots included in the official certified update, the final margin call looks to be around the followin:

Total '16 Dem Primary Ballots, including the misc fringe people (5.18 Million) and somewhere right around (46-53.1% Hillary).

We will see if this holds, but looks like you were right on the money to within a 0.1% or so when you posted this on 6/21 (Without rounding):

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

[NOVA Green]

At the risk of being diagnosed as "autistic" by a fellow Red avatar who apparently enjoys doing a "Seagull" (Check out Urban Dictionary as needed) here is where the remaining California outstanding votes exist.

There might be a few hundred more in SC, San Mateo, and possibly Sutter, but basically almost all counties are completely done and either certified or in process.

Riverside is supposed to update at 8 PM PST tonight, and I thought SD County was supposed to finalize today, (But we'll see)

[NOVA Green]

So my inner autism must be speaking, but here is where the final Cali Dem primary county margin results are, with the overwhelming majority of counties reporting, excepting (3) counties that haven't reported since Election Day (ED) and margins could easily change with <50% of the vote counted.

So obviously key items to note are Hillary's strength/dominance  in the Bay Area, and Bernie's relative strength in SoCal (Orange/SD/Ventura) as well as decent performance in LA County

[NOVA Green]

Your maps would look better if you reduce the colour scheme to various shades of 2 colours like the maps on Atlas.
ie.

But, but, but.... how do I show the margins...

My thought is the story is less about which candidate wins which county, but more about *who wins what by how much*

So I get it that the graphics are a bit confusing, hard to read, and not standard Atlas colors, but still how to tell a story visually with only two paint colors???

So need to drop to two colors and two shades of each and lose tons of detail in the process? There should be at least three shades/tones to at least indicate significant movement/margins?

Totally agreed my maps tend to be a bit of an eyesore, and is my first election posting county maps (Red and Green tend to be preferred in two candidate elections), so will try to work within a more conventional mapping scenario, for ease of data communication and make for a quick easy overview.

btw: Thanks for the tip and will need to play around a little more with Paint.Net to try to make it easier to read for everyone, and still provide data in a visual format, instead of trying to reinvent the wheel and make things confusing for everyone trying to decipher my own coding.

[NOVA Green]

Sonoma County flips from Clinton to Sanders as the very last votes are being finally counted. Sanders wins it with 52% of the vote.

Only two counties are not in CCC status:

San Mateo (900 ballots left)
Yolo

However there are still around 8K ballots in Lake County that have not been processed. The final statewide result looks to be a 7 point Clinton win

53.1% Clinton
46.0% Sanders

The Unprocessed report is probably lying about Lake. It says "Last Update 6/20", but it actually updated its vote count last night; before then it was still in "FENU" status. Or maybe the number listed for Lake County is actually for Yolo County.

Pretty sure this is over, and the Lake County results are right, considering that the "unprocessed report" has been the least accurate thus far for those of us been following various state and county reports on a daily basis....

Like I said right before the Holiday it looks like you might be exactly right on the money on a (46.0-53.0% Hillary) win to within a fraction of a percentage, when you were simply rounding your prediction a few weeks back....

Now if unprocessed ballot reports were right and we didn't lose 40k Provisionals in LA County since the last update, this might be closer to my prediction of slightly under 7.0% margin that I made off of a major dump from LA county .

[NOVA Green]

If nobody else will, I will officially give you accolades for your extremely accurate prediction from 6/21 and then 6/24.

With over a Million total votes outstanding you called it, even more accurately than you likely expected.

Congrats!!!!

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

Count updated to:

Clinton 53.9% - 2,632,238
Sanders 45.2% - 2,203,663

Standing by my prediction of a 53-46 final margin.

[NOVA Green]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

[NOVA Green]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

Their model was consistently good on a statewide level but terrible on the countywide level.

Ok... some truth there. But KY and IN models don't outweigh their epic fails in OR and NM.

Used to be a big fan of theirs and then later in the primary season their demographic based modelling started to get worse and worse...

Reality is that they got lucky on Cali, and despite the flaws in their modelling, it ended up working out miraculously and now they are the "New 538ers", and the previously extremely flawed predictions are now long since forgotten by the MsMs, who now sent large checks so that they can rebuild their website for the GE.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seemed like many of us on this board actually had a better handle on Cali election results than the wanna be "538ers".