I think this is definitely one of those "I'll watch, but not get my hopes up too high" type situations.
I don't think it can be underestimated how royally KSGOP Leadership f**ked the state up since 2011. I know it's a Senate Race, and I know it's a Trump +20 state, but I think there is a brewing (and overflowing) dislike of many KSGOP politicians (even if Democrats are disliked more in many areas).
In terms of the "Republicans may vote Dem for local and state, but not for Federal" argument... I think it is worth noting that in 3 out of Kansas' 4 congressional seats, Democrats have either flipped or gotten within 5 points of winning (1 point in KS-2) since 2016. And in 2018, it only went for the GOP on a federal basis by 9 points. And I probably don't need to remind you that in a national R+6 (for senate it was R+8) 2014 midterm, Pat Roberts could barely pull together a majority and was behind his only independent opposition - Orman - for much of the race.
There are a lot of caveats to this, but if Kobach gets the nom, and Democrats nominate a competent, Kelly-esque candidate, I would throw a few bucks here as the DSCC.
A great post-Midterm op-ed by an LGBT activist in Kansas really opened my eyes to how much Kansas has evolved, and how much good work activists are doing:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/11/27/how-i-fell-love-with-kansas-spent-next-five-years-trying-change-it/
