Rate the Senate (two weeks to go)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Honestly, Likely D.

With CO+AZ Dems have 48.

They need to win 3/4 of ME/NC/IA/MI.  They're favored in all 4 states.

And if they lose 2+ of those, then there's a pretty solid bench of backup seats.  MT, SC, AK, KS, TX.

Finally, if they miss on all those seats, there's the backup-backup plan:  Warnock-Loeffler, the race of a lifetime.  Also the Ossoff runoff.

At the end of the day only 3 of these Democrats need to win:

Sara Gideon (ME)
Gary Peters (MI)
Theresa Greenfield (IA)
Cal Cunningham (NC)
Steve Bullock (MT)
Jaime Harrison (SC)
Al Gross (AK)
Barbara Bollier (KS)
MJ Hegar (TX)
Jon Ossoff (GA)
Raphael Warnock (GA)

That's 11 chances.  And with the exception of Peters, all of them have massive fundraising advantages over their Republican opponents, and the advantage of Biden's coattails and high enthusiasm.  Feels pretty likely that they'll hit on 3 of them.