NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1669747455464812549?s=20

There is this, for what it is worth.

SawxDem, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the fact that Edelblut is considering a run should, alone, be interpreted as a sign that Sununu will retire. My understanding is that Edelblut is not super establishment / a loyal Sununu-ite. He ran against Sununu in the 2016 primary, as a significantly more conservative candidate, and Sununu appointed him to the Ed Commissioner role presumably in part to appease / gain support from the large swath of NH GOP voters who are to Sununu's right.

FWIW, I also think Sununu will probably retire, but I just don't think the potential Edelblut candidacy is necessarily a sign of that.

I'll just chime in here briefly: Edelblut did this same thing when Sununu was considering a Senate run in 2022, visiting local GOP meetings and even hiring some political types to work in his office, but then when Sununu announced he backed off and said nothing more (not that he was overtly saying he would run, he always sort of denied it). I think they don't loop each other in on these things but Edelblut almost certainly will only run if Sununu doesn't, at least that's what recent history suggests. But agreed that Edelblut on maneuvers does not mean much since he never seems to be in Sununu's loop.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1670817483727548417

That seems high for Ayotte, but I guess it would have been a warning sign for her if she wasn't absolutely dominating polls at this point considering she is almost certain to only lose support over the course of a primary against opponents to her right and will need a strong base to start from. I have a hard time seeing her playing well in a Trump-dominated cycle when she retracted her Trump endorsement in 2016 (which arguably cost her re-election) and hasn't seemed to try to build bridges to that side (which of course would not do her any favors among moderate independents she will then need to win in a general election). It just seems like she might have a difficult time navigating a Trump-dominated environment given her background.

[Brother Jonathan]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

[Brother Jonathan]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

Well that's fair, though two caveats; the Sununu endorsement does not mean much and Hansel was way outside the center of the GOP, as only makes sense as he was the mayor of a very Democratic city.

In any event, Burns would not start as a top-tier contender like Ayotte/Morse/Edleblut, who all have some sort of strength. Though I guess we will see, he has now made quite a name for himself in NH-02 having run a few times and won the primary.

[Brother Jonathan]

Anyways, the Morse news puts the primary at Safe Edelblut if he wants it. Even if Ayotte ran, the NHGOP has gotten much more conservative and their alliance with Ayotte/Sununu is one of electability. Edelblut nearly beat Sununu in 2016 and is very conservative, but not insane like Bolduc. He'll get some statewide support from the right wing of the party.

With Morse in, all Edelblut needs to do is announce and he wins.

With Ayotte: Edelblut 46-Ayotte 37-Morse 17
Without Ayotte: Edelblut 68-Morse 32

Edelblut also isn't some nobody who just entered politics running as an anti-establishment barnburner, he's been the Education Commissioner since 2017 and clearly has good relationships with GOP leaders/groups across the state. He's pretty conservative but he's also essentially 'inside the tent' and a known quantity. He's also been preparing to run since 2017.

[Brother Jonathan]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

I still think Ayotte doesn't know how to deal with Trump. Her equivocation cost her re-election in 2016 and she is still going to (likely) have to deal with him on the top of the ticket. If she thinks running for state rather than federal office is going to totally remove that issue I think she is at best naive. For that reason, among others, I'm not very bullish on her chances. I'm interested to see what approach she takes.

She still has a better shot than Edelblut, though, even accounting for that issue.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1691465113180766209?s=20

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

There are also the results in this poll for both primaries

Dems
Craig- 30%
Warmington- 15.4%
Someone else- 2.3%
Undecided- 52.2%

GOP
Ayotte- 44.8%
Morse- 9.4%
Edelblut- 4.3%
Burns- 2.8%
Someone else- 3.3%
Undecided- 35.3%

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably smart for Edelblut. For a long time, I thought he would try and, for lack of a better term, "launder" his political reputation through Sununu and become the 'establishment' pick (or, more likely, a bridge between factions at least) whenever Sununu retired. But if that ever was the plan, it clearly failed and his path to winning was a long one.

Also of course means Ayotte probably doesn't have to play to her right quite as much in the primary, just enough to fend off Burns or someone, which will help her for the general. A rare case where the NHGOP actually has possibly done something right politically.

[Brother Jonathan]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL EMERSON

2024 Gubernatorial Election

Kelly Ayotte (R) 46%  
Joyce Craig (D) 37%  
17% undecided

Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%  
Cinde Warmington (D) 34%
19% undecided

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

So this poll points to out-of-office Ayotte receiving a huge slice of ticket-splitters in 2024, when in 2016, as an incumbent and with the same top of ticket, she ran ahead of Trump by just 0.6%?

There's something fishy here.

Nothing should be surprising when the election is a year away, and she has stellar name recognition from the time in the Senate, whereas the other two may only be known best in their district. A quiet race needs time to reach a boil.

Echoing this, I'd caution about drawing much of anything from these, just wanted to put them in as a benchmark. Warmington is really not a state-wide figure as far as I can tell and while Craig may have a slightly stronger profile (being Mayor of the largest city in the state) she is still really not anywhere near as well-known as Ayotte.

[Brother Jonathan]

Some thoughts at this point on the GOP Primary:

Ayotte is still clearly the favorite, but Morse is also clearly trying hard to win over Trump, clearly he wants an endorsement. He's spoken at Trump events and he seems to know that he cannot beat Ayotte any other way than being closer to Trump (which I think is true, and reflects the fact that Morse honestly is no slouch when it comes to knowing the internal politics of the GOP, see also how he managed to get the NRA and similar groups on his side in the 2022 Senate primary). That being said Ayotte of course is still easily favored (especially as Trump's star is clearly also fading in the NH GOP) and Morse has yet to really develop a strong profile. You see a few signs and the like but for the most part the activists and local party leadership are with Ayotte. I don't see a Trump endorsement for Morse coming with him so far behind either (or being perceived as so far behind, anyway).

[Brother Jonathan]

We still haven't had any recent polling on the GOP primary, as far as I can tell. The last one was in January, which had Ayotte at 54% and Morse at 22%. I'm guessing Ayotte is probably pretty comfortably situated in the race for right now, but with Trump the presumptive nominee it will be interesting to see how her record on Trump impacts the race (if at all, it could very well not matter in the end). Morse wants it to be an issue, but we will seem if he can actually make it one.

More broadly, Morse is fighting strong headwinds. He has the endorsement of the 603 Alliance, some of the more old Tea Party types, but institutionally even the more right ward elements of the party are backing Ayotte. State House Majority Leader Osborne (a Free Stater, at least in origin), and Deputy Majority Leader Fred Doucette (an early Trump backer who was co-chair of his 2016 and 2020 campaigns and Ramaswamy's 2024 co-chair) are both in Ayotte's camp, for example, but so are more moderate figures, like Judd Gregg and Charlies Bass, to name just two of the most prominent. Really, most of the "leadership-aligned" folks are behind Ayotte as well, and they usually do a lot of work in broader organizing, so that's helpful.

Endorsements aren't everything, but if nothing else it suggests Morse is facing an uphill climb if he wants to peel off of the conservative establishment, who I think recognize they need a credible post-Sununu statewide plan if they want to have any hope of not getting shut out in November. Ultimately it means Morse cannot just run to Ayotte's right and peel voters off, and that if he tries that he will be working with the fringe of the right and that the bulk of the party apparatus will not merely be neutral but actively against him.

In any event, a ways to go before the primary, so we will have to see how fundraising goes and what polling ends up looking like as we move on.

[Brother Jonathan]

Other recent NH news:

Ted Gatsas, holding a D-trending Executive Council District including Manchester and its once deeply Republican suburbs, is retiring and the race to replace him is shaping up quickly. Bob Burns (nominee for NH-02 in 2022), NH GOP Vice Chair and former Board of Education Member Ryan Terrell (who created a stir by Tweeting an announcement on his official Party account), and Terese Grinnell (right-wing nut) are all currently running. 2010 GOP governor nominee and former NH HHS commissioner John Stephen and State Rep. Ross Berry are also possible candidates.

Ultimately this will be a harder seat for Republicans to hold, though I would not say it's impossible if they can get a good candidate. But that's a big if.

[Brother Jonathan]

Make of it what you will (he's one State Rep, albeit the Majority Floor leader) but seems like Joe Sweeney has endorsed (or is at least supporting) Chuck Morse pretty openly.

https://twitter.com/JoeSweeneyNH/status/1777746441085050967

Really not a surprise; both are from Salem and I'm pretty sure they have been close for quite a while.

More significant maybe is that a lot of his former Senate colleagues are backing him. At the very least Sharon Carson, the Senate Majority Leader, endorsed him at a press conference on his (pretty stupid makes Kelly Ayotte look normal on the border) "Fortifying the Granite State Defense Plan." A few other State Senators were present as well but they are listed as "attending in support of the plan," and only Sweeney and Carson have direct quotes in the press statement saying they support Morse.

On a general note, it's basically just living proof of how national and reflexive GOP politics are at this point given that Morse and Ayotte are getting into a fight about immigration, as though either of them will be able to deal with that as Governor in any meaningful way. Morse has an "Amnesty Ayotte" website now and is (again, as expected) tacking to her right. I mean the whole thing is nonsense, this is not an issue that will win the general, but Morse knows he needs some hook, and Ayotte cannot afford to just ignore it. It does seem Morse being so negative is creating some friction, but among voters who knows. He's at least remaining relevant and is shaping Ayotte's campaign, and it does mean it may be somewhat closer than it looked at first.