Vermont Megathread

[Brother Jonathan]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/28/milne-joins-race-for-lieutenant-governor/

Scott Milne (GOP nominee for governor in 2014 and Senate in 2016) is running for the open Lieutenant Governor's seat. He did get a lot closer in the 2014 race than anyone expected.

Oooooooo!!!!!

Now this is news! This is gonna be interesting. Thank you for telling us.

I think I support Timothy Ashe still, but Phil's coattails could help Milne, although in the past Phil hasn't had much in the way of coattails.

Milne came close because he was running against a terrible opponent, so if he has a terrible opponent again this time, he could come close again, or win.

I think Ashe is more likely that not to beat him, but anything can happen.

Milne isn't a bad candidate, but I think Ashe is fairly strong. Ashe doesn't really seem to have many weaknesses, and I can't see Scott having much by way of coattails in a national election year to help out Milne (who, I would say, is seen as more partisan and conservative than Scott, even if it's mostly just perception).

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

Maybe she could run for Governor in 2022 if Sununu runs for Senate?

'

It's not out of the question, but I think Frank Edelblut (formerly one of my State Reps, actually) might have an inside track for Governor if Sununu runs for Senate in 2022 (or loses in 2020). He's not establishment, by any means, he is part of the right of the party but his tenure as Secretary of Education has sort of normalized him and given him clout in the party. I could see Ayotte running for Governor in 2022, but she would face a hard primary race first and wouldn't be able to count on much "establishment" support. She would dominate the moderate lane though, and for Governor the NH GOP is more willing to nominate moderates. Maybe she could be nominated for the NH Supreme Court, as there is a vacancy? If the Democrats hold the executive council, but Sununu keeps the Governor's office, then maybe Ayotte could be a compromise between them to fill the vacancy. It's unlikely but possible.

I would also say she has a fairly good relationship with Trump administration, as she was selected to help with the Gorsuch nomination, but I just think she doesn't want to be forced into a position like Collins. A lot of the vitriol against her will fade, and even if "Trumpism" remains a major force in the GOP, hostility toward Ayotte will wane pretty quickly as Trump leaves the scene.

We've spent a lot of time in Vermont thread about NH politics, but to be honest I'm not really complaining. I've quite enjoyed it. I mean, hey, at least it's all New England.

[Brother Jonathan]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.

He is a fairly strong candidate, I would agree. He certainly has stronger name recognition, and would likely be able to ensure a united Democratic/Progressive ticket, as he is running a write-in campaign for the Progressive nomination and has strong ties to the party.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy

It's a smart strategy in the present climate. It contrasts interestingly with Sununu's campaign in NH, which seems to be trying to run as conventionally as possible. Scott's sort of reminds me of a "don't change horses in the middle of the stream" approach, which I think will work well for him in this environment. Zuckerman's "we need a new roof" message just isn't connecting (though it's not totally wrong).
 

[Brother Jonathan]

A little off topic, but are there any attempts to have four year terms? Two years is ridiculously short for a chief-executive, regardless of how "small" the state is. I really wonder why Vermont and New Hampshire don't change their laws? Virginia should also get rid of the one term limit. Both are relics from the 19th century.

In Vermont there has been, this legislative session in fact, but it died when a Senate Committee chair refused the bill a hearing (even though it was sponsored by the Senate President). I don't think it's really all that popular. A few former governors are opposed to four year terms (though some are for it), and I just don't think it is something people really care about strongly one way or the other.

A few years ago it was pushed in NH, but died in the legislature. I do recall polling from the mid 2000s that suggested a pretty solid majority of NH voters supported a four year term for governors, but like in Vermont I don't think people feel all that strongly about it.

The reason they don't change is basically just because the state legislatures seem to think it would make the governor more powerful/less accountable, and that's probably true.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/09/02/candidates-file-first-post-primary-campaign-finance-reports

In the Lt. Governor's race, it seems like Milne might have more of a chance than I think I initially thought, and many did when it was assumed Ashe was the going to be the Dem nominee. I still think the race is at the very least lean D, but Milne did manage to outraise Scott (though not his Democratic opponent). Of course a lot of that was from his family/lent to himself, but I still think it seems like Scott  and Milne running a closely coordinated campaign could possibly pull Milne over the line against an opponent with fairly low name recognition. I think Scott may not run such a campaign, however, and I doubt Milne can win on his higher name recognition alone, an advantage also likely to be dulled by his opponents fundraising advantage. The nature of this campaign though is likely to help candidates with already high name recognition, so I'm interested to see if Milne may be able to pull out a win.

[Brother Jonathan]

I wonder what will the political future of the Vermont Republican Party in the other offices considering a lot of their positions are filled with Brookie Page, and I wonder how well the Progressive Party will do in the downballot and the Auditor election as Cris Erickson is the only candidate.

Well, for the immediate future the Republicans are probably going to stick with Phil Scott types at the top while letting the more conservative element have the run of the show down ballot and in the more GOP leaning areas of the state. To some extent the party nominates people like Brooke Paige simply because they know they don't really have a shot unseating someone like Jim Condos, who has pretty broad appeal and will win against pretty much any challenger, so no one really runs for those positions when they have an incumbent. Focusing on open seats at the statewide level is generally a pretty good strategy for them.

[Brother Jonathan]

This is true, Scott is avoiding fundraising at this point. I also don't think he is really going to be interested in running a campaign to boost Milne, and I think Gray is a fairly competent and respected candidate who has higher name recognition than one would expect of someone who hasn't really held elected office before. In general I don't think Milne will win, but there is chance at least if the campaign goes well for him, Gray proves to have low name recognition, and Scott is able to provide Milne with a boost (though Scott hasn't really had coattails in the past).

[Brother Jonathan]

The scale of this victory is truly unprecedented. He won every county and almost every township.

Absolutely amazing

Any comments folks? How bout from our resident Vermonters?

Scott winning was of course unsurprising, but the margin is note worthy. I mean, Zuckerman winning Burlington by .2% is just insane. Scott didn't have any coattails, but it does look like the Dems have lost their supermajority. I'm happy with the result (though I will note I vote absentee in NH, where of course things were crazier, so I have been paying more attention there). I only know about one person who voted Zuckerman.  

Milne lost, which is unsurprising. The "Molly Gray is rising star" discourse has already started, but for what it's worth they said much of the same about Zuckerman. I will say I was pulling for Milne, but I knew it would be an uphill fight.

Also, both legislative Chambers may have new leaders come next year. Ashe is out (he lost the LT Gov. primary) and it looks like Speaker Mitzi Johnson may have lost her seat, though it looks like there may be a recount.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.wcax.com/2021/01/15/scott-vermont-gop-due-for-post-trump-soul-searching/

Phil Scott spoke on the subject of the Vermont Republican Party, which has spread conspiracy theories on voter fraud and the election. He said he was hopeful that the GOP would return to its roots in limited government and markets, but that “Whether they will continue with what I perceive as white supremacy dominating, racial inequity, and so forth, then we’ll all have to make some decisions,”


:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

He should just leave the party and become an independent,nobody who vetoes a legal mariijuna bill because it doesn't go far enough to protect racial minorities in a 98% white state has any future in the Republican party.

That would also make running for Senate as an independent easier to explain if he went that route in 2022 (I honestly doubt he will, but I would really like to see that, especially if Leahy retires).