MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Ronnie]

This junk is a done deal, yo.

What is?

[Ronnie]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Whoa, that's a really retarded challenge.

[Ronnie]

Star-Tribune says that Franken would have to prevail on 6% more of his challenges than Coleman to succeed. 

Of course, maybe this analysis is like Star-Tribune polling.  FWIW, if my numbers are correct, 6% sounds about right, actually, especially in the number of successful challenges is quite low.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35263049.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr

I don't get it, is this good or bad for Coleman?

[Ronnie]

Coleman is leading by 340 votes.

Franken is on his last legs.

[Ronnie]

I thought it was 270.  Doesn't matter however.  It's already been determined that the final results will be Frankin by 27 votes.  You know, regression analysis by the world's foremost statistician.  Just ask him.

http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html

[Ronnie]

I am confident, though, that Democrats will find a way to steal this election, in either court or the senate.

[Ronnie]

I am confident, though, that Democrats will find a way to steal this election, in either court or the senate.

I hope so...

You advocate fraud?

[Ronnie]

I am confident, though, that Democrats will find a way to steal this election, in either court or the senate.

I hope so...

You advocate fraud?

As Tweed said, this election was within the system's margin of error. If it comes down to a random guess (as it has), then yes, I support fraud.

Hm, so you support breaking the law in support of your cause?  That sure makes a lot of sense.

[Ronnie]

I'm getting nervous.

[Ronnie]

What I've been expecting all along.

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Why are you happy about this? 

[Ronnie]

With 98% of votes counted, Coleman leads by 316.

[Ronnie]

With 98% of votes counted, Coleman leads by 316.

Let's get real sir, "leads" 

(I'm a Coleman supporter unless my original prediction of Franken +42 is the best one, in that case my allegiance switches to bragging rights)

No entiendo.

In other words, what?

[Ronnie]

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35550034.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUxWoW_oD:EaDUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

Coleman withdraws 650 ballot challenges.

...uh-oh

[Ronnie]

Coleman is in some deep crap, I just have a feeling.

[Ronnie]

Final recount numbers:

Coleman + 192

Is this a good position for him to be in?

[Ronnie]

So, will we have a good idea of who wins tomorrow?

[Ronnie]

So, will we have a good idea of who wins tomorrow?

Coleman wins. Franken's narrowed the gap but is falling short.

Unless I'm wrong, in which case I'm wrong.-

Since when was he narrowing the gap?

Also, when is the canvassing board sitting down and doing this thing?

[Ronnie]

I always knew Franken would win this thing.

Moving on...

[Ronnie]

I think now we can almost safely say Al Franken is the senator-elect.

I think...

[Ronnie]

No. The chances rose, but they're still probably under 50%.

Not anymore.

This is excellent news. I had all but reconciled myself to loss.

It was inevitable and you know it.

[Ronnie]

Well, at least Coleman is closing on Intrade.  Probably noise, though.

[Ronnie]

Coleman is back to the favorite on intrade...by 0.4%

[Ronnie]

What's the InTrade numbers now?

Franken has a 60-40 advantage

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=Minnesota#

[Ronnie]

stick a fork in norm coleman. he's finished.

Yup, looks like it.  Unless he comes up with a lawsuit.

[Ronnie]

Franken now up 70-30 on Intrade.

Intrade means nothing.  Coleman was once up 80-20.

That said, stick a fork in Coleman, but don't rely on Intrade to make any projections.