How likely is it that Colorado will swing to Obama this season?

[Ronnie]

Colorado is one of the most important battlegrounds in '08, and I think that McCain can much more easily win the election if he can have the state in his aisle.

Also, a poll from Rasmussen not a long time ago showed them statistically tied.

Will McCain let the state slip away or not?

[Ronnie]

Conservatives will turn out for McCain.  Trust me, we may be angry at some of McCain's policies (energy, etc.), but in the end, when conservatives see how far to the left Obama is, they will hold their nose and vote.  Look at Rick Santorum.

[Ronnie]

Conservatives will turn out for McCain.  Trust me, we may be angry at some of McCain's policies (energy, etc.), but in the end, when conservatives see how far to the left Obama is, they will hold their nose and vote.  Look at Rick Santorum.

Look liberal and people pissed off with bush turnout will be way high this year. How many people will actually go out there to vote against that. Colorado is way more moderate than you think. Mccain has to win places like Jefforson and Arapahoe county and I do not know if that is possible. The WAR just kills him there.

Don't forget that attracting 100,000 more Democratic votes from 2004 will be an steep hill for Obama to climb.

As I said once before, McCain will not let Colorado slip away.

[Ronnie]

Don't forget that attracting 100,000 more Democratic votes from 2004 will be an steep hill for Obama to climb.

As I said once before, McCain will not let Colorado slip away.

Do you really have any substantiative proof for this?  Electorates are somewhat fluid.  Democrats win statewide in Colorado all the time.  100,000 votes is less than a five-point swing.  It's about a 3.5-point swing from an even election.  We're going to see plenty of 3.5+ point swings this election.  Trust me.

What of all these polls in Colorado that show Obama leading?  Polls are, time after time, the best predictors.

The latest Rasmussen poll had Obama leading with a statistically insignificant advantage.  The polls are close either way in the state.

Colorado is a tossup, and will be close either way.  It just leaves a bitter taste in my mouth to think that Obama can actually win in the state, and I expect McCain to campaign very hard.