It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[Ronnie]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%

How does Buttigieg lose 4% between rounds? Do his caucus backers head home or something?

The oddest thing about his prediction is that Sanders is losing support, because if he's in the mid twenties overall, he's crossing the 15% threshold in almost every precinct.  It's highly likely his support goes up in round 2 after the supporters of candidates who failed to do so get reallocated to him.  Buttigieg losing a point or two could make sense if he's dipping below that threshold in a bunch of precincts and doesn't quite make up for it in others, but at 22%, it seems exceedingly likely he'd gain.

[Ronnie]

My final prediction:

First Round:
Sanders 22%
Warren 21%
Biden 19%
Buttigieg 19%
Klobuchar 10%
Yang 4%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 1.5%
Others 0.5%

Second Round:
Warren 26.5%
Sanders 25.5%
Biden 23%
Buttigieg 22%
Klobuchar 3%

Warren pulls off an upset and takes the win.