The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Ronnie]

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down drastically this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

His approvals have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average chart, you would see that they have actually been incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take, since his election.

[Ronnie]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 40% (+1)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

[Ronnie]

Where are the dumpster fire and trainwreck GIFs when I need them?

[Ronnie]

Reuters/Ipsos (3/17-3/21):
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 47%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7607

One thing that seems off to me in that poll is the partisan distribution:

Democrat: 43.7%
Republican: 42.0%
Independent: 14.2%

Aren't independents way too low, and shouldn't the gap between Democrats and Republicans be greater than that?

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 56% (+1)

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 54% (-2)

[Ronnie]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.

[Ronnie]

In Trump's words, let's just have the election tomorrow!  Why wait?

[Ronnie]

I honestly think the first couple months of Trump's administration have set the bar so low for him that succeeding at passing even a minor piece of legislation would bring his approvals up to 45-50%.

[Ronnie]

The religion crosstabs in that poll are fishy.  Jews like Trump more than Protestants do?  Really?

[Ronnie]

Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

[Ronnie]

Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.

SurveyMonkey produced that result, not Ipsos.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

[Ronnie]

New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/

[Ronnie]

It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

Does "last stand" imply that they're at risk of dying as a political entity?  If so, I disagree with that premise.  Both parties have been in awful shape in recent history, and have still been able to come back as strong as ever.  I would say that we should begin evaluating whether Democrats are dying if Republicans start getting 40% of the Latino vote, 20% of the black vote, and control all three branches of government in 2022.  Not sooner than then, though.

[Ronnie]

PPP national poll (3/27-3/28)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

[Ronnie]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approval: 38% (nc)
Disapproval: 56% (-1)

[Ronnie]

IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30)

Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%

Yikes?

[Ronnie]

This is a serious crash across the board. That trendline in RCP should be especially alarming for the GOP, not that they're planning on doing anything differently.

I expect the GOP to rally around the president, at least briefly, once Gorsuch gets confirmed.  That'll probably propel him to ~42-43%.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!

[Ronnie]

I wonder if Trump's numbers are stable (for now) because is neither gaining nor losing any of his supporters, or if he's losing the same number of supporters as he is gaining.  Maybe we'll receive a hint when we see some crosstabs.

[Ronnie]

These are numbers with which he can conceivably win reelection, and all it took was bombing a foreign country.