Meet the Swingers

[California Dreamer]

Pew Research has released interesting review of Swing voters

Highlights are:
- 29% of voters are uncommitted to Bush or Kerry
(remainder of voters are close to evenly split between the two with Kerry getting a few more but it is within the margin of error and Kerry has had lots of good press so lets just say 'even')

This group seems to have good news and bad news for both Bush and Kerry
- 75% have favorable view of Kerry
- 70% have favorable view of Bush
- 79% think Economy is fair or poor (only 20% good/excellent)
- 61% think war in Iraq was the 'right decision'
- 64% oppose gay marraige
- 58% oppose more restrictions on abortion

god is this group conflicted!....how annoying that they get to choose our next president

Click to read Pew Research Report on Swing Voters

[California Dreamer]

On party affiliation they are (surprise surprise) evenly split:
39% Independent
27% Republican
25% Democrat

although I am sure some NASCAR dads are swing voters, there are also plenty of Soccer Moms too, in fact 55% are women.

Read the whole report, there is some interesting stuff in there

My read of it is that the cultural stuff is a wash for both and that the election will come down to the economy. In November if the economy seems to be on the right track, Bush wins, if on the wrong track Bush loses.

[California Dreamer]

Most of the above swing voters will either be Democrats or Independents.
The Democratic Party is much more of a "broad church" than the Republican Party, and if everyone who was a registered Democrat always voted Democrat, you guys would be out of the White House permanantly.
Fortunately for you, this isn't the case.

well if you read my post you would see that actually more are Republicans by a small margin (but this is mostly due to the fact that Kerry gets more confiirmed voters in the poll).

On political 'leanings' they cam in:
Conservative 34%
Moderate 48%
Liberal 14%

....but I think that the lables of liberal and conservative have been twisted around so much that they are no longer relevent.

[California Dreamer]

well half of the 'swing voters' are independents, the rest are pretty much evenly split...it is quite far from most of them being Dem (or Republicans)

...and regardless  if you are truly undecided at this point then it is likely that even if you are registered with one party of the other your are not one of the 'true believers'...so party wont matter that much. Everyone who gets elected president needs a good showing of crossovers.

One of the reasons Bush got elected is that he sold himself as a 'compassionate conservative', this sold well to many moderate Dems.

[California Dreamer]

well as a Buchanan fan I am sure you believe that cultural issues are pre eminent.

However history shows that at the presidential level, after all the hoopla over flag burning, guns or whatever else people want to yell about, the economy trumps.

I am certain that a swing voter who is opposed to gay marraige and is worried about his job, will focus on the job first and whether a couple guys in San Francisco are getting married somewhere lower on the list.

Neither of the candidates will make gay marraige the central theme or key distinction, nor will the swing voters. This issue only helps at the bases