As of today, [1980] is the last time this happens. Can you see a situation in our lifetimes where California votes to the right of Texas in a presidential election?
…1976.
Considering…
• California—from Democratic to Republican?
• Texas—from Republican to Democratic?
It can happen. It would be the two major U.S. political parties swapping some of their coalitions. And I think we have been getting some of that anyway.
Much of this depends on the Republicans going forward.
In 1976 California voted for Ford by 1.8 points and Texas voted for Carter by 3.2 points and that was with the Democrats nominating a southern democrat who was a bad fit for the west.
In fact the most California has been republican in relation to the nation since [1928] was in 1980 which was it was more republican than the nation by 7 points . Texas in 2020 was 10 points to the right of the nation
1968.
Richard Nixon won a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States. His U.S. Popular Vote margin was +0.70 percentage points. California was a Republican pickup, for Nixon, with a margin of R+3.08. Texas was retained in the Democratic column by Hubert Humphrey with a margin of D+1.27.
During that period, both California and Texas were bellwether states. California was carried in 22 of 25 elections from 1900 to 1996. Texas voted with all winners, except in 1968, from 1928 to 1988. (Also: With exception in 1880, and through 1988, all winning Republicans carried California; through 1976, all winning Democrats carried Texas.)
Margins are not the point I was making. I am referring to realignments. Those include political and political party realignments. And they include voting realignments.
