Do you think it will remain a competitive state...
Yes.
Bellwether state.
Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are now the nation’s best bellwether states.
They are the only three states which carried in the last four presidential-election cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—three of which were won by the Democrats—and they’re more than 95-percent likely to once again carry for the winner [winning party] in 2024 (which would make them 5-for-5).
Ohio and Florida—bellwethers no more.
New Mexico and Nevada—bellwethers no more.
In 2016, a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House was Republican +1.08. Michigan came in at R+1.06.
In 2018, a Democratic pickup for new majority with the U.S. House of Representatives, on the watch of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote was Democratic +8.56. Michigan came closest with D+7.68. Combine Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and they averaged +8.51.
In 2020, a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden, who unseated Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House was Democratic +3.12 and Michigan was the closest pickup state (for U.S. President) with a margin of +1.31.
I would say that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—when it comes to being bellwether states at least for U.S. President—are on a streak.
