Which one would you pick?
Ohio was a national bellwether from 1964 through 2016 in terms of the winner of the presidential election, or in the case of 2000 the candidate that was declared the winner regardless. That's 13 election cycles.
If 2020 is the first of 13 election cycles for a state bellwether that replaces Ohio, it will be correct for every election through 2072, until it finally votes for the loser of the 2076 election.
Which state will it be?
Premise of this is faulty.
It isn’t so much how many consecutive election cycles; it is about bellwethers for a considerable period which will continue to play out for however long such bellwether status will last.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—named in order of their population ranks—are the best bellwether states nowadays.
They are the only four states which carried for all U.S. presidential-election winners beginning with the Democratic realigning election of 2008. (Only one Republican win since—in 2016—and the Rust Belt trio carried.)
A state narrowly missing out is North Carolina. It did not vote with the winners in 2012 and 2020. But, it has been one state away each time. Barack Obama, who flipped and carried it in 2008, lost it in 2012 as he carried 26 states and North Carolina was his No. 27 best state. (Had he been re-elected with higher numbers, which is historically the norm, he would have retained it.) Joe Biden, in 2020, carried 25 states and North Carolina was his No. 26 best state. My conclusion: The Democrats, even though they won three of the last four cycles, are not hitting the numbers—and, with that, the states count—that they should be able to reach.
