What will be the Next Big 3 Swing States?

[DS0816]

In alphabetical order:

Arizona
Georgia
Texas

[DS0816]

Ohio is moving in a GOP direction; unfortunately.

Nevertheless; Dems have Pa, CO and NV

Actually, Ohio isn't moving in generally a Republican direction. I don't know where you have dreamed that up. But, perhaps you didn't take a look at the 2008/2012 maps and specifically Hamilton County (Cincinnati).

[DS0816]

Try 2014; where Kasich won. Portman won too.


State Dems did bad out of Mi; WI and IL

Midterm elections are not comparable to presidential elections. The participating numbers of voters are not on the same level … if you get 57 percent voting in a presidential election and 37 percent voting in a midterm election, that's not only a 20-percent decline but it is also means that there was about a 35-percent (that's 37 divided by 57 percent) rate of voters who do/did participated in voting in a presidential election but refrained from doing that in a midterm election.

[DS0816]

People should be noting that the duo Indiana/Missouri may be on a pattern of voting alike just as Colorado/Virginia started in 1996. (That was when Bob Dole, the losing Republican challenger, flipped Colorado and held Virginia into his party's column. They both flipped Democratic in 2008 for Barack Obama.) I'm referring to margin spreads. Over the elections of 2008 and 2012, Indiana/Missouri boasted a margins spread no greater than 1.16 percent. In 2008, when they officially carried differently (Missouri as a narrow Republican hold at 0.13 percent; Indiana as a narrow Democratic pickup at 1.03 percent), they were 1.16 percent in spread. In 2012 (when Missouri held in the Republican column and Indiana became a Republican pickup), the margin spread between both was 0.84 percent. Those two election cycles averaged a spread of just 1.00 percent. The 1996 to 2012 results of Colorado/Virginia have boasted a margins spread of 0.58 + 0.33 + 3.53 + 2.65 + 1.48. That is: 8.57 divided by 5 (election cycles) = 1.71 average spread.

[DS0816]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.