What makes states trend right?

[DS0816]

Currently none while Virginia, Georgia and Arizona trend more toward the Democratic party.

Not true, Pennsylvania has seen a rightward trend over the past 20 years, as has Minnesota and Iowa (maybe even Wisconsin). Before people flip out, the fact is Pennsylvania and Minnesota used to be much more Democratic than the national average than they are now. They still lean Democratic but much less so than 20 or 30 years ago.

Also, Arizona is not trending Democratic and Georgia is only slightly.

Arizona and Georgia are subject to move away from having their 10-point [est.] Republican advantages in this realigning period, for the Democrats winning the majority of presidential elections, and the voting electorates of Arizona and Georgia going through their changes as well. Texas is also moving in that direction.

Pennsylvania and Minnesota are not moving toward the Republicans. What trips people up into thinking so is that they look at only the margins relative national numbers. But, they still vary them. In one election, they can look like two or three points more Democratic. In another election, they can look five or six points more Democratic.

Taking Pennsylvania as an example with another point: I posted demographic numbers from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 results in Pennsylvania. The Republicans are relying on not just 90 percent but more closer to 95 percent of their popular vote, in the state, coming from white voters. And the white voters in that state are more Democratic than the nation on average.

It would be good to come across some honest posts regarding the direction coming presidential elections are taking. Your assertion is a fantasy of the Republican Party—in their current form—moving the electorate toward them…and, yet, I'm not seeing too many bets being placed on the 2016 presidential hopefuls from that party; how they would be further increase support from whites nationwide (they depend on their nationwide percentages consisting 90 percent of that from whites!); shifting women (whom they haven't carried nationwide since 1988 with George Bush) to embrace their party and ideas; and there are minorities (the Hispanic vote in Pennsylvania, in 2012, was well above the national result).

The Republican Party of today is the essentially the same as the Democratic Party was during the realigning elections under Abraham Lincoln (1860) and William McKinley (1896)—they're confined to trying to win the presidency by a very narrow path that relies on for its base the Old Confederacy. Without a landslide election, to the tune of 80 percent of states (40 of today's 50 states) getting carried, the Republicans aren't going to see Pennsylvania and/or Minnesota shift to them.

[DS0816]

Will the GOP realign back toward their roots during the Eisenhower and Abraham eras in the near future?

They could only do that if Democrats realign toward where the Republicans are right now.

[DS0816]

What is completely contradictory is that people such as yourself will absolutely refuse to acknowledge that any Republican trends are taking place in any blue states, yet they point out Republican states that will soon become swing states because "muh demographics" or whatever. The narrative is that the Obama states are all solid for the Democrats or are becoming more Democratic, and the bigger Republican states, like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,  and Texas (which isn't trending Democratic by the way) will surely come the Democrats way and are trending that way.

Less whites will continue helping those "Republican" states move away from Republican and become winnable for Democrats in this realigning period favoring the Democrats.

If you're thinking Blue Firewall states are going to go Republican…that's not going to happen with the current Republican Party as people identify what they represent. There's good reason why, long term, states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota have not voted the same as states like Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina in presidential elections in which 60 percent or less of participating states carry (while about 40 percent do not).

It's not denial.

It's historical fact.

The Republicans will have to find themselves a Grover Cleveland, a Woodrow Wilson, a Dwight Eisenhower, a Jimmy Carter/Bill Clinton—meaning, an electable candidate who can win over the electorate nationally quite convincingly, and even manage to win on the turf of their opposition party's base of support.

If that's not clear—Grover Cleveland was the only winning Democrat during the Republican realigning period of 1860 to 1892; Woodrow Wilson was the only winning Democrat during the Republican realigning period of 1896 to 1928; Dwight Eisenhower was the only winning Republican during the Democratic realigning period of 1932 to 1964; Jimmy Carter (one term) and Bill Clinton (two terms) were the only winning Democrats (three of ten cycles) during the Republican realigning period of 1968 to 2004. Nearly all of them have this in common: They hailed from states which were among the dominant party's base of support: Cleveland, from New York; Wilson, from New Jersey; Eisenhower, from New York (1952) and Pennsylvania (1956); Carter, from Georgia, and that was in a transitional period (a 1972 Richard Nixon became the first Republican to carry all Old Confederacy states with margins above his national number), and Clinton, after the Republican wins of the 1980s (a 1988 George Bush became the first winning Republican for the party to routinely carry the Old Confederacy states above his national margin; a 1980/1984 Ronald Reagan did not do that), was the beginning of a counter-realigning of the map. Plus, there's the fact that, since the Republicans first competed in 1860, about 55/56 percent of the 34 elections (the most recent with 2012) saw the party with its base in the "North" (meaning, not the Old Confederacy; meaning, not the "South") prevail. So, that's another strike against the current Republican Party. There's also the demographic they can't help—the decline of whites (who they depend on nationally for 90 percent, estimate, of whatever percentage they receive in the U.S. Popular Vote—and that 90 percent is skewed to whites from the Old Confederacy states). And, of course, Gallup recently revealed a poll showing the electorate is becoming more liberal—yet a terrible slam against the Republicans who, of course, now get to look forward to more guidance not only from Mike Huckabee but from Rick Santorum for where that party should go.

No denial on my part.

[DS0816]

How long will this alignment last with democratic 'majorities' 2038? 2044? Im sure fatigue will set in after long stretches of one party control, unless you want the US to resemble a country like China or Vietnam.

The majority of them have lasted approximately nine election cycles.


1800 to 1828: Democratic-Republican (won all 7 of these cycles)

1832 to 1856: Democratic (won 6 of 8 cycles)

1860 to 1892: Republican (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1896 to 1928: Republican (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1932 to 1964: Democratic (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1968 to 2004: Republican (won 7 of 10 cycles)


In each of the past cases, the majority party won elections over the minority party at least with 70 percent of the cycles. Average between the 1800 to 2004: 41 divided by 52 = 78.84 percent. The other guide, looking at realignments that went 7-for-9 for the majority party, accounts for 77.77 percent.

[DS0816]

How long will this alignment last with democratic 'majorities' 2038? 2044? Im sure fatigue will set in after long stretches of one party control, unless you want the US to resemble a country like China or Vietnam.

The majority of them have lasted approximately nine election cycles.


1800 to 1828: Democratic-Republican (won all 7 of these cycles)

1832 to 1856: Democratic (won 6 of 8 cycles)

1860 to 1892: Republican (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1896 to 1928: Republican (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1932 to 1964: Democratic (won 7 of 9 cycles)

1968 to 2004: Republican (won 7 of 10 cycles)


In each of the past cases, the majority party won elections over the minority party at least with 70 percent of the cycles. Average between the 1800 to 2004: 41 divided by 52 = 78.84 percent. The other guide, looking at realignments that went 7-for-9 for the majority party, accounts for 77.77 percent.

So according to the election cycles, around 2032 or 2036, the solid blue states will start trending right or the south will trend towards the democrats.

Refer to this earlier response I had to a previous question you asked.

Here…

Will the GOP realign back toward their roots during the Eisenhower and Abraham eras in the near future?

They could only do that if Democrats realign toward where the Republicans are right now.