Let's talk North Carolina

[DS0816]

The Republicans do have to worry about North Carolina.

This is part of their base (when the party prevails). The trend shows that, for a winning Democrat to carry select states among the Old Confederacy, Florida and Virginia now carry and, after that, next is North Carolina.

Approximately 11 to 15 percent of a winning Democrat's electoral-vote score comes from select states from the Old Confederacy. So, after Florida and Virginia, where else? Georgia. South Carolina. Mississippi. Alabama. Texas is another subject. And then there are a trio who have moved from persuadable (Arkansas and Louisiana, which voted for the nine winning presidential tickets of 1972 to 2004; Tennessee, a former bellwether since 1912 minus 1924 and 1960, prior to 2008) to strongly Republican. So, there is plenty of logic to this. North Carolina, a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama's first election, in 2008, is that state that will carry for a winning Democrat whose percentage margin is at least five (or, most recently, six) points nationwide.

[DS0816]

Democrats only win North Carolina when they have electoral landslides. The dems need to wait a little longer on its trend for it to become reachable in very competitive elections.

Not true.

Winning 28 states, and carrying North Carolina in the process, is not an electoral landslide.

And, while Republican posters fantasize over Pennsylvania, also keep in mind that Barack Obama won Indiana with carriage of 28 states. (A big difference between the other 20th-century-winning Democrats who carried that state: Woodrow Wilson, 1912; Franklin Roosevelt, 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson, 1964. Those previous winners carried at least 80 percent of available states. Obama carried 56 percent of states which included Indiana.) And, over the last two elections (2008, 2012), Indiana's margins were barely different from former bellwether state Missouri's.

Let's keep in mind that, with exit polls for 2012, the men in North Carolina gave more Democratic support than men nationwide: 46 vs. 45 percent.

[DS0816]

Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:

This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96

Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.

So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?

Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:

1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19

So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.

At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.

So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?

This drives me nuts. I dont think you know what PVI is. Is is the GOP or Dem performance in that state relative to the national popular vote. Your R+s are wrong

Depends on definition. Some people define 47/53 to 50/50 as a D+3 swing; others, as a D+6 swing (since the GOP margin of victory changed from 6 points to 0 points). A consistent definition would be nice. And I think NC will become a swing state, already is, and slowly will become more D as better educated parts of the state grow with respect to less educated, rural, more Republican parts.

That has to do with percentages rather than percentage margins.

Margins are more important…and one such example why that is are the presidential elections of the 1990s.

People who are placing percentages over percentage margins, on this site, need to adjust themselves.

[DS0816]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

If the Democratic nominee wins in 2016, and does so with a larger margin the one received with the 2012 re-election for Barack Obama, North Carolina will carry.

[DS0816]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

If the Democratic nominee wins in 2016, and does so with a larger margin the one received with the 2012 re-election for Barack Obama, North Carolina will carry.

NC gov is a pure tossup; like FL senate; eventhough Hilary polls poorly in those states, she certainly can make those two races tight.

But, the presidential race wont be a landslide, due to House gerrymandering, Hilary can win CO, NV, Ia, Pa and NH. For 272 electors.

The numbers won't be the same. The map won't be neither. In fact, there has never been a duplicated electoral map for two elections.

[DS0816]

I know thats why I said she will win 272 electors; not the same as 2012.

But Roy Cooper can win in 2016 without Clinton coattails

No.

If the 2016 presidential election results in a Democratic hold, with Hillary Clinton, she's not going to get reduced down to 272. The four most instrumental bellwether states—Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado—will carry.

[DS0816]

2016 wont be a landslide.

How would you describe a landslide?