AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton

[DS0816]

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if [John] McCain wasn't the nominee.

…
I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

It won't.

Arizona was one of seven states that did not shift at least 2.47 percent points more Democratic in 2008. Why that number, 2.47? Because George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004 by a margin of 2.46, and a shift of 2.47 in however many states was indicative of Barack Obama, the Democratic pickup presidential winner, being able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote. (Turns out there 43 states that shifted to at least the minimum level.)

A 2008 Arizona did not shift as far because it was native son John McCain nominated at the top of the Republican ticket.

Had Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 by more traditional numbers (say, three to five percentage points in his popular-vote margin and an increase with his electoral-vote score), he would won a Democratic pickup of Arizona (as well as Georgia). It would have theoretically been Mitt Romney winning, as he did, Republican pickups from Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (similar-level margins) while Obama countered with Democratic pickups with Georgia and Arizona, for 374 electoral votes.

In every presidential election since after the 1980s, the Republicans have averaged between 7 and 9 electoral votes per state carried. The Democrats have averaged between 11 and 13 electoral votes per state carried. Those 16 from Georgia and 11 from Arizona fall right in line with that average.

[DS0816]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

Very true.  Not only do demographics favor the GOP in Arkansas, Hillary was never personally popular there.  Indeed, her feminist left posturing (referring to herself as Hillary Rodham) in 1980 was one of the factors in Bill Clinton losing his bid for re-election.

Is it true that you're not a single day under the age of 101?

[DS0816]

GA, MT are more likely to go Clinton before AZ does. Even when Bill won AZ in 1996, he only won with 46.5% of the vote, which is the best performance by a Democrat since Johnson in '64.

After the 1980s the margins carried in Arizona and Georgia have been within a five-point spread from each other in every election cycle with exception of 2004 (when it was a six-point spread).

If we get a third consecutive Democratic presidential victory in 2016, and the margin is above that of a re-elected Barack Obama's from 2012, it will be North Carolina followed by Georgia and then Arizona. In the case of the latter two, if a winning Democrat goes from Barack Obama's 26 carried states, from 2012, to reach 29 then Arizona and Georgia become a part of it.

[DS0816]

Unless Hillary is comfortably leading by like 5-10 points she is not going to contest any Romney states outside of NC. Her focus is going to be holding the Obama states you only expand the map if your in a comfortable position but polls show her struggling in states like IA, CO you can forget about trying to pick up GA, AZ, AR etc.

Are people here still gullible to actually believe that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election with a map showing a failure to hold Colorado yet win a Democratic pickup of North Carolina? There was a spread in the margins of 7.40 percentage points between those two states. If she's winning the 2016 election with including a Democratic pickup of North Carolina, there will no concern with Colorado and there certainly wouldn't be a concern with Iowa.