Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona?
Had Barack Obama received increases, as is normally the case with incumbents re-elected to second full terms, he would have won over Arizona.
Take at least the post-television period beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, in the 1950s, and most incumbents garner an additional 3 to 5 percent points with their re-election, over their first-term election, margins.
Obama would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 (Omaha) to a Republican pickup for both going to Mitt Romney. The 44th president would have countered by flipping Georgia and Arizona.
Electoral-vote score, for this scenario, would have been Obama going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (for 2012).
