One interesting demographic pattern is the growth of the Democratic party in the South on the presidential level. This can already be seen in Virginia and North Carolina, and probably will be important in Georgia. How crucial do you think this will be in the future? Will there be significant Democratic growth in SC, Mississippi, or Texas?
Of the eleven states of the old confederacy, the Democrats' path to winning the presidency used to include Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and one or both of Georgia and Florida. Fla. and Virginia are now bellwether states. North Carolina is trending to
competitive -- it was 13 points (2000), 10 points (2004), 7 points (2008), and between 5 and 6 points (2012) redder than how the country voted over those last four cycles. Republicans now have all four congressional seats in Ark. which had carried for all prevailing Democratic presidents prior to Obama and including No. 42 and native son Bill Clinton. La. has trended red due in part to reduced population from New Orleans. Texas is one that is on a path to possibly compensate for Ark., La., Tenn. (and formerly reliable border-souths Kentucky and West Virginia). Georgia, though, is one the Democrats should go after before Texas. It was one of three -- of a total 22 -- states that carried in 2008 for John McCain as Barack Obama won over the female vote. (His 54 percent of women was stronger in Ga. than that of his pickup states Virginia, Florida, and non-south Ohio.) 2012 couldn't make Ga. feasible because of the national trajectory that resulted in Obama reduced from D+7.26 (2008) to D+3.84 (2012). Had he experienced an increase with popular-vote margin and electoral-vote score ... he still would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 but had feasible shots at flipping Arizona (where he did win over the female vote) and Georgia (no report from the exit polls because it was one of 19 states not polled by
Associated Press). Both Ariz. and Ga. carried in single digits, for Mitt Romney, and a 10- to 13-point national victory -- with an increase of three to just over five points -- would have made them possible 2012 Democratic pickups.
