But still, gubernatorial elections aren't as partisan as Senate ones and Florida is to some extent a swing State. With such a joke as a GOP candidate, I don't see how he managed to do so well. Maybe Rubio's coattails, but is that enough to explain?
Historical context of a midterm, after a party-pickup president wins the White House two years earlier, is frequently the pattern of the party that lost the White House comes back for revenge in the midterms. They don't stop with the congressionals. Governorships are included.
Consider the following states: Pennsylvania (since 1938, except for 1982), Wyoming (1958, except 1978), Michigan (1978, except 1990), Tennessee (1986), and each of Kansas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma (1990).
What do they have in common? They've been routinely electing governors from the party opposite to that of the White House, with no more than one break in pattern. Though their gubernatorial elections are held in odd-numbered years, following leap years, Virginia (1977) and New Jersey (1989) also apply. New York had been on a roll: since 1982 they did the same thing, but recently established two breaks with 2002 and 2010. Arizona hasn't been doing it a minimum of 20 years, but the state is on a roll since 1994.
How is this possible? It is partisan, in terms of turnout. And it was no coincidence all these states (except N.Y.) kept up with the pattern.
