Four scenarios to consider:A: Election 2012 is the second such case in the past 100 years-plus that we flip political parties in two consecutive elections. The Republican candidate erases the 7.26% margin won by President Barack Obama in Election 2008. And enough states flip to make the difference.
ELECTION 2012Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. *
Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
PALIN 50.10% |
OBAMA 48.39%
B: Election 2012 results in President Obama re-elected but becoming the second commander in chief, following 1916 Woodrow Wilson, to suffer a loss in electoral votes in his re-election (1912 Wilson won 435 out of 531; in 1916 he had 277 out of 531).
ELECTION 2012Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. *
Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
PALIN 48.33% |
OBAMA 50.16%
C: Election 2012 results in President Obama having a modest shift in U.S. Popular Vote similar to re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush, both of whom garnered an additonal 3% in their margins. A few states trade colors, but President Obama has a gain in electoral votes in his re-election.
ELECTION 2012Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. *
Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
PALIN 43.95% |
OBAMA 54.54%
D: Election 2012 results in the first 400-vote [-plus] victory in the Electoral College since 1988. The Republican Party has a candidate who loses significant ground that’s worse than the party’s losing candidate from 2008, John McCain. In this case, no states get picked up by the opposition party. The incumbent party is the one that picks up states and, in essence, landslides challenging party and its candidate.
ELECTION 2012Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) vs. *
Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
PALIN 38.82% |
OBAMA 59.67%
