FL, 1960

[DS0816]

How come [1960 Richard] Nixon won it [Florida]?

…Not enough of a [1956/1960] Democratic shift to flip Florida for John Kennedy. Same with Ohio. The two states have agreed on every presidential election since the first post-World War II election of 1948 with exception of 1992.

In 1992, Bill Clinton was collapsing double-digit margins in both states to flip them on George Bush. He succeeded in erasing the 10-point margin in 1988 Ohio but fell shy by 1.9% in attempt to do likewise with the 20-point margin by which 1988 Bush won Fla..

In 1956, a re-elected Dwight Eisenhower carried Ohio by over 22% and Fla. just over 14.5%. Kennedy reduced Ohio down to 6.5% and Fla. at 3%. Given that election was unbelievably close (Nixon narrowly held his home state of California; even after Election Night mistakenly called it for Kennedy), it's not a surprise not all ground could be covered. Had Kennedy won the election by 3% or 4%, then in such case it's likely he would've flipped both Ohio and Fla. Both bellwether states, Ohio has backed the winner in every election since 1896 with exceptions of 1944 and 1960; Fla. has been in the column of all winners since 1928 with exceptions of 1960 and 1992.

NOTE: In 1960, J.F.K. became the first prevailing Democrat not to carry Fla. But all winning Democrats have carried the Sunshine State and/or neighboring Georgia. The Democratic winners of the 1960s, 1990s, and 2000s went 1-for-2 (1960 JFK: Ga.; 1964 Lyndon Johnson: Fla.; 1992 Bill Clinton: Ga.; 1996 Clinton: Fla.; 2008 Barack Obama: Fla.). All other winning Democrats won both. Consider Barack Obama was 5 points within flipping 2008 Ga., and won 54% [majority] of the female vote there, if he's re-elected in 2012, I'm willing to bet he'll join the others who carried both Ga. and Fla.