In 2008 Obama won 365 Electoral votes, since it takes 270 EV to win, he has a significant margin to lose states and still win. However, the 2012 election will be after apportionment which will shift a net 6 EV to Republican leaning states (not counting the states listed below), so Obama can lose 89 EV and still win. Below is a list swing states Obama won rank ordered from narrowest win to largest margin. At this point I think Obama would lose NC, IN, FL, OH, VA losing 85 EV, so for a Republican to win they need to win only one of the remaining swing states 9 swing states.
State Winning % 200 2012 EV
North Carolina 49.7 15
Indiana 49.9 11
Florida 50.9 28
Ohio 51.4 18
Virginia 52.6 13
Colorado 53.7 9
Iowa 53.9 6
Minnesota 54.1 10
New Hampshire 54.1 4
Pennsylvania 54.5 20
Nevada 55.2 6
Wisconsin 56.2 10
Oregon 56.7 7
New Mexico 56.9 5
Can Obama be defeated in '12? Where shoudlt eh Republicans focus to win?
Can you give us a map?