For reference, Joe Arpaio lost this district by seven points when he was seen losing Maricopa County by 13%. This points to about a 10% Biden lead in Maricopa County, which is plausible but on the outer edges of outcomes.
It’s a little hard to say it pulls everything so uniformly. I’m moving to this district in a week or two, and this is the area that is probably going to swing hardest blue of all AZ.
Possibly. Only AZ-09 had a harder left swing in 2016 from +4 Obama to +17 Clinton. AZ-02 also had a big swing as well.
