ABC News/Washington Post: Biden+15 (RV), Biden+10 (LV)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It really should not make me nervous that Biden's lead is "only" 10 points when you shift to LVs yet it does.

Then maybe start making calls to your neighbors to the state just south of you every day if it makes you feel better.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It really should not make me nervous that Biden's lead is "only" 10 points when you shift to LVs yet it does.

Then maybe start making calls to your neighbors to the state just south of you every day if it makes you feel better.

Pennsylvania's closer  

No Senate race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Odd they didn't poll Hispanics.

All Demographic numbers;

Midwest:
Biden +17 (tie in March)

South:
Trump 50%
Biden 44%

Independents:
Biden 54%
Trump 37%

Women:
Biden +25

Suburban women:
Biden 60%
Trump 36%

Suburban men:
Trump 49%
Biden 45%

College graduates:
Biden 63%
Trump 33%

Whites:
Trump +4 (Trump +18 in march)

Blacks:
Biden 94%
Trump 2%

White Catholics:
Trump 51%
Biden 47%

non-college white males:
Trump 64%
Biden 34%

Trump 2016:
Trump 90%
Biden 8%

Clinton 2016:
Biden 95%
Trump 3%

It's Biden up 6 in the South.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The LV model tightening by 5 points just doesn't add up since 86% of RV's are "certain" to cast a ballot with another 5% as "likely". Unless those at 50-50 or less are like 80-20 Democrats, they are all jacked up

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Odd they didn't poll Hispanics.

All Demographic numbers;

Midwest:
Biden +17 (tie in March)

South:
Trump 50%
Biden 44%

Independents:
Biden 54%
Trump 37%

Women:
Biden +25

Suburban women:
Biden 60%
Trump 36%

Suburban men:
Trump 49%
Biden 45%

College graduates:
Biden 63%
Trump 33%

Whites:
Trump +4 (Trump +18 in march)

Blacks:
Biden 94%
Trump 2%

White Catholics:
Trump 51%
Biden 47%

non-college white males:
Trump 64%
Biden 34%

Trump 2016:
Trump 90%
Biden 8%

Clinton 2016:
Biden 95%
Trump 3%

It's Biden up 6 in the South.

What? Are you saying that.... GA and TX.... might finally be their?

It begs an interesting question of what states are they including in the south? Is it the standard definition of the old Confederacy? Biden being up might be believable if he's crushing it in Virginia and Florida and winning NC, GA, and TX, but a lead in the south as a whole is hard to believe. Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana are just too overwhelmingly red and cancel out the plausible Biden states.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Biden is actually up 6 in the entire South, he is winning Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in his sleep. He is also winning Texas and South Carolina. States like Mississippi and Louisiana would be low single digit wins for Trump at best.

If he’s winning the Midwest by 17, he is not only winning Michigan and Wisconsin and NE-02, he’s also winning Ohio, Iowa, and quite possibly Indiana and Missouri. Maybe even Kansas.

If he’s winning the Northeast by 30, he is winning every single state in the region by double digits including Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as well as ME-02.

It's important to remember that the census regions for the South, which is probably what the poll uses just for consistencies sake, includes Maryland, Delaware, DC, Kentucky, and West Virginia in the Southern region along alongside the old confederacy. However, this shouldn't dissuade from the crosstabs significance, though one should always remember that they are crosstabs.

In conclusion, if this poll plays out in November than Biden would probably get somewhere around 410 EVs. The pessimist would remind everyone that there are still 3 months until election day, and things could change. The realist recognizes that the election is secondary news to Coronavirus and it's correlated issues (civil unrest and BLM, Schools, Masks, economic recession, job loss, etc). Trump's reelection is tied to the crises resolving themselves, which at this point appears unlikely.

OK, let’s be generous to Trump and say this may be understating his support in “the South” as defined by the Census Bureau. In that case maybe South Carolina is a toss-up instead of a clear Biden win, but he still definitely takes FL/GA/NC and probably TX. Because big leads in places like DC might more or less cancel out big deficits in places like OK, a Biden +6 win throughout the South would still be very damning for Trump, but maybe not quite as damning as if you limited it solely to the Confederate states.

But it STILL would be HORRENDOUS for him to be down 17 in the Midwest, as the Census Bureau also includes all the plains states there. So again, that means Biden is likely winning not only MI/WI/NE-02/OH/IA, but also quite plausibly IN/MO/KS. Which, by the way, fits with both public polls showing Biden ahead in MO and reports of Trump internals showing him down in KS.

And as for the Northeast... We’re talking LBJ ‘64 annihilation here if Biden is truly ahead by 30 points in the region.

I am aware of the problems with relying on crosstabs too much. I’m just saying, IF we were to take these numbers at face value, they would be indicative of an absolute electoral bloodbath for Trump.

Just nitpicking here, but DC is nowhere near enough to cancel out Oklahoma's Republicanness. Clinton won DC by 270,000 votes and Trump won Oklahoma by about 530,000 votes.

The 11 states of the Old Confederacy voted for Trump by about 9%, identical to Texas's margin. The expanded definition of the south including Oklahoma, DC, Maryland, West Virginia, and Kentucky moves the margin only 0.2% to the left.

If Biden is doing anywhere near this well in the South, he is easily carrying Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in addition to obviously Virginia.