It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.
Agreed, because if they do, the narrative shifts from “Democrats can win this” to “Marshall is the only one who can defeat Bollier.” Liberal groups don’t want that!!
Are any of these polls showing Bollier winning or very close non-partisan? The Democratic polls might not be hugely off, it's not inconceivable that Kobach loses if he's the nominee, but there probably is a bias to Bollier in polls like these.
Believe it or not, Kobach was actually polling better in the gubernatorial race against Kelly than he is now against Bollier in the Senate race. I have no reason to think the polls are underestimating him this time