IA: Selzer & Co/Des Moines Register: Trump +10 vs Biden

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. #iowaflipsbeforetexas

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

To me thanks to the reputation of the Selzer poll this may not just be a bad sign in Iowa, but in the Midwest at-large.

Hence why Texas can’t be triaged because “muh 26 years and no wins”

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

It means no such thing. Their results were not remotely close to IA in 2016 and uniform swing doesn't exist.

The rural areas of Iowa and Wisconsin are very similar politically. Very Lutheran heavy, Obama-friendly, then swing hard right in 2014/2016. The only thing keeping Wisconsin from getting out of hand is Madison and Milwaukee

People, my username isn’t a complete joke

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ten-point lead in a swing state after impeachment during the worst display of incompetence for an administration in a national crisis since Katrina.

Cool, cool.

I think you misspelled the word red state.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah, sorry, not buying it. There's no reason to believe Trump would perform *better* here than in 2016. Still winning? Sure, but not *higher*.

He could. Iowa is trending rightward fast.

It’s trending rightward so quickly that 2/3 of its Republican House seats flipped Dem in 2018 and the third is still at risk.

Well when three districts are essentially tossups and the fourth votes R+25 or more routinely, it’s going to obviously drag the state rightward. And the “third still at risk” is unique to Steve King and Steve King only.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why is it that in atlas so many of the polls that have trump doing well are not legit and sckewed; but the polls that have democrats doing well are viewed as more legit; and credible?

Truth is almost all these polls have some bias; but There is A LOT of bias here. Just saying

Because people want to cling to the “Iowa is a swing state” lie despite not winning a single gubernatorial or Senate race in the state since 2008.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

^Which "suburban" counties or areas are we talking about here? The three most Republican small-town/rural counties in NW Iowa (and the entire state) gave Trump a larger raw vote margin than all the counties bordering Polk County combined, even if we exclude Story County (which is easily the most populous and "suburban" of the nine, was more Democratic than Polk, and one of only four counties to trend Democratic in 2016). The second of the four counties to trend Democratic was Dallas County, the most populous Des Moines suburban county after Story, and this one even swung Democratic.

No offense (maybe I’m blind), but I don’t see how it’s inflexible Republican "suburban" voters in the Des Moines area which are contributing to Iowa's rightward shift in any noticeable way.

Especially when if anything, the Iowa “suburbs” are following the nationwide trend. Boone and Dallas counties have treated Dems pretty well recently. It’s just not nearly enough to matter since they are pretty insignificant on the overall statewide vote, unlike Georgia where Trump losing Gwinnett County by 20% (which is very possible by the way) would spell his doom.