Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Caldwell and Red River finished. Do we have benchmarks?

JBE lost Red River to Rispone+Abraham in the primary so that’s a great result

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

Suburban LA is very conservative on social issues too

Not as culturally so as the rural south I can tell you. #trendsarereal

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

There’s much less for the GOP to tap out of rural Texas than there is for Democrats to tap out of the metro centers. Look at all the counties that Cruz won with 80-90% of the vote and then look at how much Democrats still have room for upward growth in places like Harris County, the DFW metroplex, and San Antonio and Austin metro

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

Good you’re getting it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

Sweet mother of God. I knew #trendsarereal, but damn

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Well I didn't get into the weeds of the primary map. My bad I guess, but this is still pretty surprising.

A Democrat doing poorly in rural areas is the least surprising development of the past three years