2016 Summer Olympics

[Platypus]

The next few olympics are about 90% planned out. 2020 will go to Cape Town, which means 2016 and 2024 have to go to 'wealthy' countries. Chicago will win in 2016 because Europe, Australia and Asia can't; Europe will probably host the 2024 games (One of: Paris, Berlin, Madrid, Rome, Amsterdam, Moscow) and Asia in 2028 (Tokyo, Osaka, maybe Singapore or a Middle Eastern city)[although Asia and Europe might swap 2024 and 2028) and 2032 will be South America-Santiago, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo or Rio de Jeneiro. 2036 Is the Middle East if it didnt have the Asian games of 2028(/4?), otherwise it will be East Asian; 2040 will be North America, and then it's open again, with 2044 going to Europe or Australia and Oceania, and then no-one can really predict.

Winter Olympics throw a curve-ball into the mix, but they're not THAT important.

Whilst unlikely to be entirely correct, the most likely progression is this:

2000-Sydney, Australia, Australia and Oceania
2004-Athens, Greece, Europe
2008-Beijing, PR China, Asia (East, South and Southeast)
2012-London, United Kingdom, Europe
2016-Chicago, United States of America, North America
2020-Cape Town, South Africa, Africa
2024-Berlin, Germany, Europe
2028-Tokyo, Japan, Asia (East, South and Southeast)
2032-Rio de Jeneiro, Brazil, Latin America
2036-Istanbul, Turkey, Asia (Middle East)
2040-Toronto, Canada, North America
2044-Melbourne, Australia, Australia and OCeania
2048-Paris, France, Europe

(but everything after 2032 is really just guesswork)

[Platypus]

2036-Istanbul, Turkey, Asia (Middle East)

(but everything after 2032 is really just guesswork)

Istanbul is not in Asia and not in the Middle East.

...sometimes.

It is, in these terms, at least Middle Eastern. The Asia question is harder to answer; Turkey for the most part is in Asia, but Istanbul is not.

[Platypus]

Cape Town is the only African city with a realistic chance, and 2020 is the best chance for Cape Town-South Africa will (hopefully) have recently held a successful World Cup, Cape Town will be well on the way to the needed infrastructure (and that infrastructure that exists will not be too old to be used in the Olympics) and the IOC is desperate to hold a games in Africa within the next cycle or two. Add the fact that North America, Europe and Asia will all have been 'satisfied' in the most recent summer Olympiads, plus probably in the winter Olympiads also, and every factor points to 2020 being THE year for a host city from Africa or South America, and as I said before, this is Africa's best shot.

I'd say it's at least an 80% likelihood, dependent on only two variables: 1. Where the 2016 games are held (which the 2020 contest will heavily influence) and 2. The success of the 2010 soccer WC. The only other variable even conceivable is a better bid from South America or somewhere else in Africa (the latter very unlikely unless another South African city, the former probable) which will affect voting, although rather than award the games to another Global South city, it will just delay the inevitable South African games.

[Platypus]

Germany is an olympic powerhouse. It will get one of the next three European games, I I think it'll be the first.

[Platypus]

Hugh, 2024?

The Olympics aren't coming back to Berlin for a LONG time.

They haven't been held there for a long time and as bad the memories from Nazism were they can't last forever.

Even if it does go to Germany (which isn't unlikely), it'd be someplace like Cologne or Bremen.

Cologne, Leipzig, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Bonn, Bremen-all possible, for sure; but Berlin is the most likely imho.

[Platypus]

Obviously the 9 people who voted for Rio have never been anywhere near it....

If it must be held in SA then Buenos Aires is the only choice.

Santiago, Chile could host it, too, and Rio has PanAm experience, but I do tend to agree that the games would be better in BsAs (or Santiago) than one of the Brazilian cities.

[Platypus]

Obviously the 9 people who voted for Rio have never been anywhere near it....

If it must be held in SA then Buenos Aires is the only choice.

Santiago, Chile could host it, too, and Rio has PanAm experience, but I do tend to agree that the games would be better in BsAs (or Santiago) than one of the Brazilian cities.

Santiago is another city that could hold the games, but I'm not sure if the infrastructure is there. There would definitely have to be a lot of work done that wouldn't necessarily need to be done in BA. Kind of like the work that was needed in Salt Lake or Atlanta

Santiago has very westernised parts and very poor parts. It had a very good transportation system that could easily be modified for an olympics when I was there (in 2006) but apparently there are some major problems with the bus element atm. Other than that, it has a few venues but nothing much of olympic quality. It would certainly need 2 new stadiums and an aquatics center at the least. Valparaiso and Vina del Mar would also likely hold some events; I could easily see all the rowing/kayaking/sailing etc events over there, and probablyy something like boxing or gymnastics. It's less than an hour from the city by bus.