Australia - 7 September 2013

[Platypus]

Bass is in trouble, Lyons isn't, no idea about Braddon. Ultimately I've put them all as Labor in my pre-election prediction. Half of Victoria left to go.

[Platypus]

Agreed that that's the likely order of falling - Bass, Braddon, Lyons. I'd be surprised if they lost two, shocked if they lost three. Bass is completely in the air I thnk, anyone but Abbott and it'd be a flip for sure.

[Platypus]

Believe it when you see it, but yeah, definitely seems probable at this point.

[Platypus]

Yeah, I shared that on facebook.

Re: Beattie. I love the move, but I have no idea how locals will feel. Is he from that seat? If he is,  it's going to Labor. If he's not, it'll be a very interesting campaign.

[Platypus]

You may well be right.

Smid, you know this seat particularly well - what are your thoughts about it?

[Platypus]

New ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UVCJwn_iLOg

[Platypus]

Regardless of the fact that they needed to be dumped, dumping candidates is always a very bad look.

[Platypus]

Is that Abbott tapping his pen during KRudd's opening?

[Platypus]

The worm is clearly a Labor plant.

[Platypus]

I'm watching the worm more than the debate. Rudd is pretty much maxing out on every issue, Abbott is floating around the midpoint half the time, and under the other half.

[Platypus]

OK, so apparently the channel 7 worm is online, anyone can access. I believe 9's in a representative group. 9's is hugely pro-Rudd, 7's is pro-Abbott, and 10's is roughly neutral. Not sure how 10's doing theirs.

[Platypus]

OK, I'm voting again.

http://www2.nswnurses.asn.au/gallery.html?id=nsw0139_30.mov&type=video

[Platypus]

If Labor loses with 68 seats, Rudd's gone, let alone 58.

[Platypus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H7BTKTOwLE&feature=youtu.be

Quite exceptional

[Platypus]

About to go and vote now. Still working out the preferences between 1-2 for Sex Party and Stable Population Party, and 3-4-5 between the Greens, ALP and Palmer United Party (lol), but 6th is Libs, 7th is the DLP (ugh), 8th is Family First, and 9th is Rise Up Australia.

So many awful candidates. Best candidate is probs the Lib, but... Abbott.

As for the Senate, hot mess.

[Platypus]

I won't be in Victoria again til Sunday the 8th :/

[Platypus]

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

[Platypus]

Like for example, how are the ALP holding their own in the state-wide polling in Queensland, but are really struggling in the individual seat polling? Labor doing better in marginals rather than safe seats doesn't tell the full story here.....

Wouldn't it be the other way round, that Labor is doing better in safe seats than marginals?

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

Isn't polling showing a rather large swing in SA, a mid-size one in Queensland (concentrated in Brisbane; in rural areas/the north of the state it seems they may actually gain due to the KAP's preferences), enough to get 3 seats in Victoria, with only WA holding steady? That's how I'm interpreting this...

I vaguely ignore the polling.

As it stands, I see the ACT, WA, SA, and the NT as a wash, although Labor may gain Hasluck. I really doubt they'll get Solomon, and while they could lose Wakefield or Lingiari, both are improbable.

NSW excluding Sydney and Victoria will see very small swings to the Coalition, certainly less than 2%. Labor will lose Dobell and Corangamite, but probably nothing else. They may even gain Dunkley, due to state Liberal issues, but it's not likely, and less likely than losing LaTrobe or perhaps Robertson.

Tasmania... No idea. Wilkie is safe, and I'd be very surprised if the Libs picked up Franklin and Lyons. Bass I think is gone, Braddon I suspect will be incredibly close and I don't know which side it will fall to. I'm putting it as a Liberal gain, but very very tentatively - it's the area of Tasmania that hates the state Labor government the least, and it has a well-liked local member.

Queensland: If it wasn't for Entsch, Leichhardt would fall, but he should be re-elected handsomely enough. Other than that, I kind of agree with Polnut in that I think the swing will be to Labor, but I think it will be slight and not affect any seats. Dawson if any, but still not probable. In Brisbane, I have no idea what will happen. My gut feeling is Labor to pick up Brisbane, Bonner, and Forde.

So excluding Sydney, I have the ALP losing one seat, but most of the maybes are in their favour. It's more likely for them to gain one than lose three, I think, but anywhere between no change and -2 is about equally likely.

Sydney is where things get bad. Polnut thinks Macquarie and Bennelong are winnable for Labor, and he may well be right... but I think they'll get massacred in the LIV seats. Greenway they might hold on to, but Lindsay is gone, and Banks. Reid and Parramatta should stick, but will be close. The big swing I think this election will come in Kingsford Smith, Barton, and Banks - certainly over 4%, and maybe as much as 7%. While I only think they'll lose Banks, they could be in for a fright in both Kingsford Smith and Barton. There'll be a swing in Werriwa too, but the ALP will hold it. Basically I see the best case scenario for the ALP, if they win both Macquarie and Bennelong, being a wash. But the best case scenario for the coalition is holding those two seats and winning up to 5 from Labor. I think they're pretty much set on two, and will hold their own seats. Which is enough to govern. They ought to get a third in Greenway, but it is in a unique situation in terms of candidates

[Platypus]

Oh, and yeah, Zed Seselja will be comfortably elected after Kate Lundy for the ACT senate seats.

[Platypus]

I go by general trends, media mood, and gut. And I do well - in 2007, only got 2 seats wrong (Dawson and Robertson, IIRC), in 2010, 3 (two of the lib pickups in Queensland and Denison).

I'm not saying I'm better than the polls, I'm just saying I don't think it's trash to ignore them. Being in tune with various communities is far more important that following the polls, and similarly accurate.

[Platypus]

I think it's a remarkably diverse seat, really. Plenty of miners and people involved with toruism, but also a large indigenous population, and Cairns is booming. Add in the Queenslander factor for Rudd, and things like the NBN which are particularly important in regional areas, and the fact that Entsch has one of the most sizeable personal votes in the parliament, and that the conservatism in FNQ is far removed from that of Sydney's North Shore or Melbourne's Eastern suburbs, and the natural lean to me is more like Lingiari than Maranoa. I think in a 50/50 election with two fresh candidates, Leichhardt would be a very interesting seat to watch, and while in such a situation it would probably stay in the Coalition's hands Labor would not be far behind at all.

[Platypus]

Victoria over the years in relation to the nation:

1901

Government coalition: 18
Free Trade: 5

1903

Government coalition: 18
Free Trade: 5

1906

Gov. coalition: 12
Others: 9

1910

Labour: 10
Independent: 1
Commonwealth Liberal: 11

The Independent is not part of government, so probably counts as the first time Victoria didn't go with the nation.

1913

Commonwealth Liberal: 12
Labor: 9

1914

Labor: 12
Independent: 1
ComLib: 8

1917

Nationalist: 14
Labor: 6

1919

Nationalist: 9
Independent: 1
Labor: 6
Country: 5

Nationalists win government, but only a plurality of the seats in Victoria.

1922

Nationalists: 5
Country: 5
Labor: 7
Liberal: 2

Labor win a plurality of seats, but the Nationalists and Country party formed government.

1925

Nationalists: 8
Country: 4 (in coalition w Nationalists)
Independent: 1
Labor: 6

1928

Nationalist: 9
Country: 3 (coalition w N)
Labor: 8
Country Progressive: 1

1929

Labor: 13
Nationalists: 3
Country: 2
Country Prog: 1
Independent: 1

1931

United Australia: 12
Country: 4
Labor: 4

1934

UAP: 11
Country: 3
Labor: 6

1937

UAP: 9
Country: 3 (coalition w UAP)
Independent: 1
Labor: 7

1940

UAP: 6 (coalition)
Liberal Country Party: 2 (coalition)
United Country Party: 1 (coalition)
Independent: 2
Labor: 9

The Independents supported Menzies to form government, but in 1941 switched their support to Labor.

1943

Labor: 9
Independent: 2
UAP: 6
Country: 3

Labor won only a plurality in Victoria, but a majority nationally.

1946[/b]

Labor: 8
Liberal :7
Country: 4
Independent Labor: 1

While Labor did win a plurality, this is the first unequivocal time that Victoria and the nation voted differently, as the Liberal/Country coalition was formalised.

1949

Coalition: 20
Labor: 13

1951

Coalition: 18
Labor: 15

1954

Coalition: 18
Labor: 15

1955

Coalition: 23
Labor: 10

1958

Coalition: 23
Labor: 10

1961

Coalition: 23
Labor: 10

1963

Coalition: 23
Labor: 10

1966

Coalition: 24
Independent: 1
Labor: 8

1969

Coalition: 23
Labor: 11

1972

Labor: 14
Coalition: 20

Being the jewel in the Liberal's crown for so long, 14 seats was a good result for Labor in Victoria - but still, this election was by far the most overtly different between Victoria and the nation.

1974

Labor: 16
Coalition: 18

It still wasn't quite time in Victoria, but the equilibrium was being re-established temporarily at least.

1975

Coalition: 24
Labor: 10

1977

Coalition: 23
Labor: 10

1980[/color]

Coalition: 16
Labor: 17

The new paradigm in Victoria had arrived, as the DLP died off for good. Well, more or less.

1983

Labor: 23
Coalition: 10

1984

Labor: 25
Coalition: 14

1987

Labor: 24
Coalition: 15

1990[/color]

Labor: 14
Coalition: 24

Not a good time to be Labor in Victoria, but the rest of the nation had no problems with the ALP.

1993

Labor: 17
Independent: 1
Coalition: 20

After the excellent 1990 result, the coalition could have expected to lose seats, and did - but not enough for Labor to get back on par.

1996

Coalition: 21
Labor: 16

1998[/color]

Coalition: 18
Labor: 19

And here is where the consistent lean to Labor bites...

2001

Coalition: 17
Labor: 21

Unlike the rest of Australia, Victorians show they have character.

2004[/b]

Coalition: 18
Labor: 19

Then again, supporting Latham...

2007

Labor: 21
Coalition: 16

2010

Labor: 22
Green: 1 (supports Labor)
Coalition: 14

In a hung parliament, Victoria is the state that refuses to give the Coalition government.

[Platypus]

Tasmania:

1901 (Multi-member single constituency)

Protectionist: 1
Labour: 1
Free Trade: 3

Prot/Lab coalition government denied third seat in Tasmania due to vote splitting, giving the opposition Free Traders their strongest result nationally I think.

1903

Protectionist: 2
Labour: 1 (in coalition w Protectionists)
Free Trade: 1
Revenue Tariff: 1

1906

Protectionist: 1
Labour: 1
Anti-Socialists: 3

I can't really analyse this well, sorry. But my thinking is that the split between the Protectionists and Labor probably played a role.

1910

Labour: 3
Commonwealth Liberal: 2

1913

Commonwealth Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

In an incredibly tight election nationally, the incumbents maintain their seats in Tasmania, but with very large swings against Labor in their seats (~11% for King O'Malley in Darwin being the largest)

1914

Labor: 3
Commonwealth Liberal: 2

1917

Nationalist: 5
Labor: 0

1919

Nationalist: 5
Labor: 0

1922

Nationalist: 2
Country: 2 (in coalition w N)
Labor: 1

1925

Nationalist: 4
Country: 1
Labor: 0

1928

Nationalists: 3
Independent: 1
Labor: 1

1929

Labor: 3
Independent: 1
Nationalist: 1

1931

United Australia: 5

1934

Labor: 3
UAP: 2

Despite having a Taswegian PM, the state turned against the UAP government as a whole, although all three senators elected were UAP.

1937

Labor: 3
UAP: 2

This time, Labor not only won the HoR delegation, but also all three available senate spots, even though Lyons still lead the nation, which wouldn't be the case at the next election.

1940

UAP: 3
Labor: 2

1943

Labor: 3
UAP: 2

1946

Labor: 3
Liberal: 2

1949

Liberal: 4
Labor: 1

1951

Liberal: 4
Labor: 1

1954

Liberal: 3
Labor: 2

1955

Liberal: 3
Labor: 2

1958

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

Unlike the mainland, the DLP had very little influence in Tasmania in this election, and the state may even offer a glimpse into what would have hapenned nationally if not for the groupers.

1961

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

Or maybe they just didn't like Menzies and the coalition in the Apple Isle?

1963

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

All incumbents are re-elected,

1966

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

And again, the seats remain unchanged, although there's a new member for Franklin. Interestingly, there's no senate election in Tasmania this year, which along with South Australia was the only state not to have vacancies in need of filling.

1969

Liberal: 1
Labor: 4

It was time in Tasmania, if not quite in the country as a whole.

1972

Labor: 5
Coalitiion: 0

1974

Labor: 5
Coalition: 0

1975

Liberal: 5
Labor: 0

1977

Liberal: 5
Labor: 0

1980

Liberal: 5
Labor: 0

1983

Labor: 0
Liberal: 5

Despite the national move to Labor, and despite it's history of being Labor-friendly6 during the Menzies era, Hawke makes no gains in Tasmania. The Senate also saw no change, with 5 Liberals, 4 Labor, and Brian Harradine being sent back in an election for the full senate.

1984

Labor: 0
Liberals: 5

The state is firmly at odds with the ALP, as the Franklin Dam dispute is perhaps the most overwhelmingly important issue at any election for any state. Labor do manage to pick up one of the two additional senators, though, along with the Democrats, so the state's delegation was split 3-3-1.

1987

Labor: 1
Liberals: 4

Still no love for Hawke and Labor, but not as catastrophically bad as they win back Hobart-based Denison.

1990

Labor: 1
Liberals: 4

All incumbents are re-elected.

1993

Labor: 4
Liberals: 1

With Hawke gone, Tasmania provides a large part of the boost needed for Keating to win the unwinnable election.

1996

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

Howard's landslide does get one seat won in Tasmania, but the state is now firmly to the left of the national centre.

1998

Liberal: 0
Labor: 5

A perfect storm of Greens preferences, gun lovers, timber loggers, and general anti-Canberra mood due to the struggling state economy provide the Liberals with a walloping in Tassie, although they managed to hold on to two senate spots.

2001

Liberal: 0
Labor: 5

Labor's absolute control over the Tasmanian seats continued through 2001.

2004

Liberal: 2
Labor: 3

2004 was a controvertial year in Tasmania, as the loggers got support from Howard, and the greenies got support from nobody. The northern seats most affected by the Tamar Valley Pulp Mill both went to the government's side, but Labor managed to hold on to Lyons and with it the majority.

2007

Labor: 5
Coalition: 0

2010

Labor: 4
Independent 1 (supply for ALP)
Coalition: 0

2013 (prediction)

Liberal: 1
Independent: 1
Labor: 3

[Platypus]

It's an awful policy, I can't see it gaining any votes

The seat of Melbourne will be one to watch. I have it going back to the ALP, but it'll be close.

The seat of Lingiari that Labor holds is hard to predict, but the current member is very popular in the seat.

[Platypus]

There are a few seats in there that are definitely suspicious, but hey, it's a bit of fun

Going to do Queensland and the ACT in a bit.