Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Platypus]

New poll out; in short everyone hates Kevin. 6% lead on TPP for the Coalition.

Rudd's line is "sure, you hate me, but Tony Abbott is worse". This is likely to be highly effective, as it is probably the most truthful thing he has said since 2008.

[Platypus]

New poll out; in short everyone hates Kevin. 6% lead on TPP for the Coalition.

Rudd's line is "sure, you hate me, but Tony Abbott is worse". This is likely to be highly effective, as it is probably the most truthful thing he has said since 2008.

Since 2008? I think we can go back further than that!

I think February 13 2008 is probably the right day to go back to

[Platypus]

Why is Rudd unpopular? He's completely fake. The electorate ought to eat that up.

It did, until his government actually had to start implementing policies. Damn Westminster system!

[Platypus]

Well, the debate has been brought forward so as not to clash with the Masterchef grand final. I'm going for Callum even though he has no chance. He's like the Democrats. Mum supports Claire who has a strong chance. She's a bit posh and has a double-barrelled surname so fits best as the Liberals. Courtney was eliminated but came back late in the competition, and seems to be a lot of people's second choice, so represents Labor. Adam has never really been tested, and while he is inventive and different it'd be suprising if he won, but not if he did well. Greens. Then there's Jimmy. Nobody likes him, he's basically only good for one thing (curry) and it seems like it's only a matter of time til he's gone, which fits quite well for the Nationals.

[Platypus]

Odd campaign so far. It doesn't seem like a real campaign for some reason. Might be because there doesn't seem to be a realistic chance that the government will change. Or because instead of the usual spending spree, both parties seem to be trying to unspend as much as possible. Surprisingly enough, Labor is doing so more efficiently and in smarter ways (not just oh hai let's cut the public service!).

[Platypus]

The debate was probably a slight win for Gillard, but because it was only a slight win some people are saying that means it was a win for Abbott .

[Platypus]

It's an unbelievably dull election, to be honest. Last time was far more interesting because you had the possibility of fundamental change, and also the whole Bennelong factor. This time, people don't expect much to change, and even if Abbot6t did win, they don't expect a huge change in government.

[Platypus]

except in the ACT, because realistically the second senate seat for the territory functions largely similarly to a HoR seat. In theory and so far in practice the ALP get one Senator and the Liberals the other, but if the Greens are polling better than the coalition you wouldn't bet the house on Humphries' reelection.

[Platypus]

I'd suggest the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt

Western Australia
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne

Queensland
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Patterson
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator

[Platypus]

random question: are voters required to number all boxes on the ballot for the House?

Yes

well, to be pedantic, yes if they want their vote to count

[Platypus]

Carn Jules!

I tip Victoria to save Labor's arse. Excluding Melbourne, I'd guess all the swing seats (McEwen, Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe) will go Labor, but none of them are definite. They're screwed in WA and will lose seats in NSW and QLD, but I think the buffer will be enough if Gillard can keep Victorians on side, and I think she can.