based on the RCP average of polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.htmlNo I do not think Trump was ever on track to win re-election
Biden had bigger leads over trump long before Covid showed up
In fact Biden Biggest lead over trump was in 2019 when the rcp average had him ahead by 11 points in September 2019. His lead only started to go down during the heated primary be I believe Biden numbers would have recovered the second the dem primary ended even without Covid
If anything I think Covid may actually help trump re-election chances since is could effect Dem turnout in November