A poll with 17% undecided doesn't do much for me. That percentage is in equipoise in NJ?
NJ is full of independents who remain undecided through most of the election and then break for the Democrat en masse at the end. Always happens like clockwork.
Yea, since about 2002 NJ has been EXTREMELY stubborn like that. Look at the last 4 or 5 statewide elections. The exact voters almost always go the exact same way. Dem by 9 or 10 in the end.
I actually thought NJ would go the way of New England a little bit with their sudden jump in social liberalism since 2000, (not to mentions Gore's 16 pt win in 2000) with things like death penalty abolishment, civil unions and such gaining enormous support in the state.... but it seems that there are still quite enough very well-off suburban families in the northern part of the state that really just want, as Bill Maher put it, "a mean old man who will protect my money". Northwest Jersey is staunchly Republican.
It's such fool's gold for the GOP because it is NOT a strongly Democratic state by any means. It is moderately Democratic at a very, very, very high level of stubbornness.