NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17% (user search)
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  NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17% (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17%  (Read 8921 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« on: February 17, 2016, 08:01:52 AM »

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43


Someone needs to give these olds a refresher course in American History, especially to the time period when Democratic Socialist FDR saved their butts from utter destruction at the hands of corporatists.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2016, 08:17:11 AM »

How did they not get a crosstab for Hispanics in a DEM primary in NV?  That's odd.  But this poll has Hillary winning whites, so I have to imagine Sanders is making inroads with browns.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2016, 08:17:36 AM »

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43


Someone needs to give these olds a refresher course in American History, especially to the time period when Democratic Socialist FDR saved their butts from utter destruction at the hands of corporatists.

55 years ago was 1961.

The over 55 demographic is dominated by baby boomers.

It's just a joke.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2016, 08:21:29 AM »

Those sub-samples for the Dem race are downright whacky. I'm not saying they're wrong, but this would be completely counter to what we're expecting.



They only gave the results for whites, but did it say anywhere what percentage whites are?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2016, 09:23:16 AM »

This is very strange - if Clinton and Sanders are breaking even with whites, she holds huge leads with women and voters over 45, how can this race be a dead heat? CNN must think that the electorate is going to significantly change from 2008 - many more men and younger voters, and we don't have any Black and Hispanic numbers. In 2008, voters over 45 made up a whopping 68% of the electorate and Hillary is winning them by over 40 points.

The disappointing part is that from the cross-tabs Hillary should be doing well - but the secret sauce that they apply makes this a dead heat, but they don't provide a rationale for why this is a dead heat. I'm going to go out on a limb and say if Clinton and Sanders break even with whites on Saturday that she will win.

Quite.  But with a sample of 280 voters you get all manners of nonsense and noise.  Maybe this worked in more homogenous states like IA and NH but you get wacked out crap in states like NV, which is impossible to poll, anyway. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2016, 10:44:48 AM »

According to this link, the new CNN poll of Nevada has Clinton ahead of Sanders with non-white voters 56-43. And she is leading with Whites 46-44. So, how is this race tied? Something doesn't add up in their cross tabs.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/planned-parenthood-hillary-clinton-nevada/index.html

Wacky business with White Hispanics?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2016, 02:08:02 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2016, 02:19:17 PM by HockeyDude »

Nate Silver changed his polls-plus probability for Nevada from Clinton as 51% favorite to Clinton as 69% favorite based (as far as I can tell) solely on this poll. I'm guessing that means he assumes a pretty big house effect in favor of Sanders?
I mean, CNN/ORC was uniquely terrible in Iowa.

CNN Final: Sanders +8

Result: tie

PPP final: Clinton +8

uhhhh... what?  
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2016, 02:24:25 PM »

Nate Silver changed his polls-plus probability for Nevada from Clinton as 51% favorite to Clinton as 69% favorite based (as far as I can tell) solely on this poll. I'm guessing that means he assumes a pretty big house effect in favor of Sanders?
I mean, CNN/ORC was uniquely terrible in Iowa.

CNN Final: Sanders +8

Result: tie

PPP final: Clinton +8

uhhhh... what?  
The last CNN/ORC poll of Iowa has Sanders +8....

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-full-results-cnn-orc/index.html

Changed it.  I got it mixed up with Qunni.  My mistake.  But CNN and PPP both sucked.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2016, 02:09:56 PM »

Folks, Hillary is solidly "establishment."  She is "status quo."   She is "more of the same".  She also has lied often about herself and flip-flopped when it has been convenient.  Don't take my word for it.  There is plenty of information on this on the web complete with videos of her speeches and quotes from known and respected news sources.  But ya gotta look for it because the media, although they reported these things originally, don't want to publicize it all again now because Hillary is their gal.

She is a slick talker and well polished and coached.  But dig through that and you won't like what you find.

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