I think if either candidate screws up, it still won't make a great deal of difference. As I see it, the West Coast and North East are certain to be Democrat and the West/South Republican. There's no way in a million years NY will vote for Bush.
The states to watch I think will be NV (might go Dem due to expanding Las Vegas), Iowa, NM & Wisconsin will go Republican.
WV & NH will go Democrat. As for FL & OH, optimistically I'll say Democrat! :-/
Don't be so worried about Iowa and Wisconsin. Job losses have been huge, and the democratic base (which greatly outnumbers the republican one) is one of the more liberal, anti-bush in the country. Bush did well there in 2000 because people actually believed he was a moderate and he had that outsider appeal a Washington insider like Gore could never have.
