Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.
Gotta call you on this one, Lief. Buck won CO independents, who were 39% of the voting population, by 16 pts in 2010. Now that was after the Tea Party movement, and Buck was a Tea Party candidate. Obama took independents by 10 pts in 2008, but they were also 39% of the voting population.
Interestingly enough, it was R+1 in 2008, but Dem +5 in 2010. Now, that make absolutely NO SENSE... unless conservatives are increasingly identifying as Independent, which is probably true.
Colorado is going to be a tricky one in 2012, but I have to think Obama wins by about 3 based on aggregate polling data.
