Sorry Gustaf forget to post the total…Doh!... here your are…
Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.
Kerry = 299
Bush = 239
Kerry is going to win all of the Gore states, and pick up Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Arizona.
Because we still have a LONG time till the election, I'll include some tossups, who they lean for and why.
TOSSUPS:
NEW HAMPSHIRE- Leans Kerry because of bordering Massachusetts and a very energized Democratic party in the state.
WEST VIRGINIA- Leans Kerry. Traditionally Democratic, but went Bush because Al Gore scared alot of them off with his gun policies and the lack of a decent turnout last time. This time, job losses and better Dem turnout results in a Kerry victory.
NORTH CAROLINA- (if Edwards is VP) The results will be close, but I doubt the large number of conservative voters will be convinced to vote for a liberal by another liberal as VP, even is he is from the south and more moderate.
FLORIDA- Close as always, but will be won by Bush because of the mess in the Florida democratic party and Jeb Bush.
TENNESSEE- The Appalachia area in the state suffered job losses, but these guys didn't even vote for their own guy. Bush will win here.
OHIO- Hit hard by manufactuing losses and the bad economy. There are just too many people here mad at Bush. Kerry will win.
IOWA- A state with a decent sized Democratic base that seems energized by all the excitment around the primary. Kerry wins.
MINNESOTA- Surprisingly close last time, but traditionally Dem and will stay that way.
NEW MEXICO- A growing hispanic population and a popular dem governor will swing the state for Kerry.
ARIZONA- (see NM)
OREGON- very close, but with low turnout and a high Nader vote. Kerry shouldn't have a problem here.
