Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[MRCVzla]

Utility links (all links in Italian):
Candidate lists
Interior Ministry: https://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza/elezioni-politiche-2022
https://candidatipolitiche2022.netlify.app/

Italian party quiz
Trovapartito (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/elezioni/trova-partito-per-chi-votare
Itamat: https://itamat.it/
Politicometro (Ultimora.net): https://politicometro.net/ (also on Telegram: https://t.me/Politicometro_Bot )
Navigatore Politico (Quotidiano Nazionale): https://euandi2019.eui.eu/survey/it/navigatorepolitico2022.html

GEDI/Repubblica' Candidate search by municipality+Political quiz (Partitometro): https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2022/candidati-elezioni-25-settembre-collegi-comuni/

Seat-o-meter calculator
Seggiometro (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/approfondimenti/simulatore-elezioni-maggioranza-parlamento-numero-seggi

[MRCVzla]

As polls are banned since last week, some of the Italian political sites are trying in their socials put some trends of the banned polls... and seems the M5S will be recovering some votes in the South (as happened in 2013 and 2018) at cost of the center-left, so Letta' campaign (already much of communicational disaster since the start) is concentrating all its efforts there (to perhaps prevent the pentastellatos from winning some FPTP seats, especially in the Naples area).

The rest of the campaign focuses mainly on the problems arising from the situation in Ukraine, inflation, rising bills, security and inmigration. Meloni's campaign has been cautious (except when a MP publicly requested to the Peppa Pig episode about a lesbian couple or some other praising Hitler), she is really portraying a PM profile in the rest of the campaign as FdI is still rising while Lega's weak, Salvini still wants to "retaining" immigrant rescue boats and imposing his "flax tax" while Berlusconi is becoming popular on TikTok while he wants to continue to ensure that the center-right coalition will remain pro-EU and pro-NATO. Probably the center-right is not going to eliminate but modify in its own way the "citizenship tax" (M5S' star measure). The centrist "third pole" seems have no other major policy that keep Draghi as PM despite he's not wanting again the job. There were some "debates" at political forums as well a Letta-Meloni face-to-face at Corriere della Sera' website, but not a proper TV debate (Mentana' La7 seems still have is offer up to have one with the four major leaders for this Thursday, but is really unlikely), it seems that they are very comfortable with the interview/press conference format (adjusted with the "par condicio" time limit, more than 30 minutes for lists in Parliament, and like less than 10-15 minutes for the extraparliamentary ones).

The update came for this, if remember that Cappato guy from the Radicals ("high" on social justice-direct democracy) who was trying to run only collecting digital signatures bc they accepted in this year' referendums and hopping a last minute' rule to validate that at general election level, well, all of their lists were rejected so he appealed at a Milano court and if they ruled in his favor, the elections should have to be delayed so their "Referendum and Democracy" lists can be accepted and reimpress all the ballots with their symbol. The court ruled today and... their rejected his appeal (without much surprise, he still wants to appeal to international instances, good luck with that) so the elections are going as scheduled this Sunday (the postal abroad vote is ongoing since some weeks ago).

- Meloni is running in L'Aquila Camera district
- Berlusconi is running in the Monza Senate district, city of the newly promoted Serie A team which he owns (while his younger girlfriend is running in a safe Sicilian Camera seat)
- Three interesting races to watch:
1) Bologna Senate: Pierferdinando Casini running again with the centre-left (this time if he's elected will seat in the PD group) against the always controversial Vittorio Sgarbi (in a Noi Moderati quota, and with some support of his celebrity friends).
2) Roma centre Senate: Emma Bonino vs. Carlo Calenda... but the vote division of the latter could cause the victory of the FdI' Cdx candidate.
3) Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera: three Draghi ministers running in the same district, Luigi Di Maio (IC), Mara Carfagna (Azione/IV) and Sergio Costa (M5S), who will come out first among them or the Cdx candidate
- To watch also the 3% threshold race at PR level, will the mainstream left (Verdi-Sinistra) not underpolling again?, Italexit will surpass it?

[MRCVzla]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

95% of centre-right majority according to Gianmarco Di Lella model (based mostly on pre-ban opinion polls): https://politiche2022.netlify.app/

They probably will close to the 2/3 supermajority (267 seats), still probably will have more than 200 seats bc being able to win a lot of FPTP seats thanks to the division of the non-right/Draghi+M5S camp, but like in 2018, the M5S could surprise in the South (Naples, Sicily).

[MRCVzla]

When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

To add Mike88' post with this tweet with the estimate time when we get the exit/instant polls/first projections, Sicily regional election' ballots are the last to be counted in that region so their first projections and results will be known on Monday evening/night.
https://twitter.com/Antonio12I/status/1573666449968828416

Also election result site (Interior Ministry' Eligendo) is up: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

[MRCVzla]

Quorum/YouTrend for SkyTG24 officially projects what M5S minister Sergio Costa wins the Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera district, this and Impegno Civico projected to be below 1% means what former M5S leader and minister Luigi Di Maio is not reelected and will be OUT OF PARLIAMENT
https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574180106561589251

Meanwhile at Senate early count, Sgarbi is leading the Bologna district against Casini (almost 40yr in parliament at risk) but remains to count a lot of precincts from Bologna city proper. As well, Cateno De Luca' high result projected at Sicily regional election may could help his "South Calls North" list to also win some Camera/Senate districts (at the moment to redact this, its leading the Messina Senate district)

Surprise to me is +Europa around to surpass the 3% threshold to obtain PR seats. Also the "unexpected" race between Lega and FI at 8-9%

[MRCVzla]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

As they say before, Aosta Valley is the 147th seat and it's counted aside of the rest of the country and Abroad constituency for their pure FPTP nature (as well the 6 Senate seats from South Tyrol).

Speaking of Aosta Valley, the House seat was won by the alliance between the PD, Azione/IV and the main autonomist parties (a Union Valdotaine member), but in the Senate was a close race won by the centre-right single candidate (a former regional president from Lega). In the House what cost the gain for the Cdx here was the vote splitting to a local Renaissance Valdotaine candidate, a party linked to Vittorio Sgarbi' national movement (similar be said by the centre-left-autonomist in the Senate, also affected by a vote splitting for a former Senator/regional president candidacy).

The South Tyrol Senate seats went 2 by each pole, Csx won Bolzano and Trento, Cdx hold Rovereto and Pergine Valsugana while the SVP retains their german-speaking districts of Merano and Bressanone, in the Chamber SVP won the 2 Bolzano province seats while the 2 Trento province seats stayed at Cdx)

While in the Abroad constituencies, PD won 3/4 Senators (minus South America who went to MAIE, winning by a landslide in Argentina as usual, meaning former F1 champion Emerson Fittipaldi endorsed by the Cdx lost) and 4/8 seats (including "virologist" Andrea Crisanti in the Europe constituency), the Centre-right only elected a Lega incumbent in Europe and a FdI member in North/Central America, the other seats went to M5S who hold an Europe seat and the usual MAIE seat in South America as well, all of those in the House.

[MRCVzla]

The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

The DC Sicily is led by former regional president Salvatore "Totò" Cuffaro, barred from life to hold office for a mafia-link sentence who spended jail time between 2011 and 2015. He seems retain some of his vote base after all this years, or the list also was helped to have to support of the mayor heir of the DC and their "crusader shield", the UDC.

All the center-right list in Sicily were over the 5% threshold, apart of the "big three", also the other moderate list hold seats, "Popular and Autonomists" led by former minister Francesco Saverio Romano (elected in the House) and the MPA of other former regional president Raffaele Lombardo.

[MRCVzla]

Not quite, as always there's a seat prize for the winner - although in this case it is small and does not automatically guarantee a majority: Crocetta didn't get one in 2012 and Musumeci almost didn't in 2017. However Schifani got close enough to 50% that I assume his coalition will easily reach a majority of the seats.

The majority prize are extra 7 seats for Regional Presidential candidate in a list led by himself (the runner-up, in this case Cateno De Luca is also elected to the Regional Assembly). Majority is 36/70 seats so will may had one.

[MRCVzla]

Berlusca crisis aside, today started formally the Consultation Round at the Quirinale, will last between today and tomorrow 21 with all the parliamentary groups and mixed group components formed yesterday at both Chambers. Despite all the controversy, all center-right groups (aka the soon-to-be majority) are expected to be received together by Matarella tomorrow in order to encharge Meloni a government quickly.


Camera dei Deputati:
Fratelli d'Italia: 118 (-1)*; caucus leader: Francesco Lollobrigida
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 69 (-1/+1)**; caucus leader: Debora Serrachiani
Lega-Salvini Premier: 66; caucus leader: Riccardo Molinari
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 52; caucus leader: Francesco Silvestri
Forza Italia-Berlusconi Presidente-PPE: 44 (-1)***; caucus leader: Alessandro Cattaneo
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 21; caucus leader: Matteo Richetti (Azione)
Mixed group: 30
- Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra: 12 (asking for a repeal to form their own group)
- Noi Moderati-MAIE: 9 (+1)*
- +Europa: 3 (+1)**
- Linguistic minorities: 3 (-1)***
- Non inscrits: 3***

*Expelled FdI MP Calogero Pisano (the one who "praised Hitler") sits with the Noi Moderati-MAIE component
**éViva' Luca Pastorino helps +Europa to have their own component, while CD' sole MP Bruno Tabacci pulled a Casini and sits as independent in the PD caucus.
***Berlusconian "animalist" Michella Brambilla decided to sit in the mixed group as independent, the other 2 non inscrits are Sud Chiama Nord' Francesco Gallo and SVP' Dieter Steger (temporary i guess)

Senato della Repubblica:
Fratelli d'Italia: 63 (-3); caucus leader: Luca Ciriani
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 38 (-2); caucus leader: Simona Malpezzi
Lega Salvini Premier-Partito Sardo d'Azione: 29; caucus leader: Massimiliano Romeo
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 28; caucus leader: Barbara Floridia
Forza Italia Berlusconi Presidente: 18; caucus leader: Licia Ronzulli
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 9; caucus leader: Raffaela Paita (IV)
For the Autonomy: 7; caucus leader: Julia Unterberger (SVP)*
Civici d'Italia-Noi Moderati-MAIE: 6; caucus leader: Antonio De Poli (UDC)**
Mixed group: 7 (the 4 Verdi-Sinistra senators plus 3 senators for life -Liliana Segre, Mario Monti and Renzo Piano)
Non member of any group: 1, senator for life Carlo Rubbia

*As the "tradition" goes, senators from Trentino-South Tyrol, Aosta Valley plus other regional/local parties and independents forms this tecnical group, with SVP and ScN senators, 2 PD senators elected in TAA plus senators for life Elena Cattaneo and former President Giorgio Napolitano.
**3 FdI senators help to form this group, with the new mininum number to form a group (6 senators)

Voting for chambers' Vice Presidents happen as "expected", with 2 Cdx (FdI and FI in the House, Lega and FI in the Senate), 1 PD and 1 M5S taking the posts, Azione-IV walked out in both votations as there was no agreement to ceede a post for them.

[MRCVzla]

After today meeting with all the Centre-right, Meloni has been commisioned by Mattarella and will take office tomorrow at 10:00 CET.

[MRCVzla]

Polls are closed, according exit polls, Centre-right gains Lazio and retains Lombardia.
Opinio (Noto/EMG/Piepoli) for Rai / Quorum/YouTrend for SkyTG24 / Tecnè for Mediaset:
LOMBARDIA
Attilio Fontana (CDX, inc) 49.5-53.5% / 48-52% / 49-53%
Pierfrancesco Majorino (CSX) 33-37% / 32-36% / 33-37%
Letizia Moratti (Centre) 9.5-13.5% / 12-16% / 10-14%
Mara Ghidorzi (UP) 1-3% / 1-3%

LAZIO
Francesco Rocca (CDX) 50.5-54.5% / 48-52% / 50-54%
Alessio D'Amato (CSX) 30-34% / 29-33% / 31-35%
Donatella Bianchi (M5S) 10.5-14.5% / 14-18% / 10.5-14.5%
Rosa Rinaldi (UP) 1-3% / 1-3%

Turnout in Lazio is around 45-46%, in Lombardia around 41-42%, of course a downfall respect to 2018, where both regional elections were hold in the same date of the general elections.

[MRCVzla]

Effectively, 41.7% in Lombardia (73.1% in 2018) and 37.2% in Lazio (66.6% in 2018), the latter is the lowest turnout EVER in a regional election (the former record was from Emilia-Romagna 2014 with 37.7%)

Apart from CDX winning both races, the other headline would be in the party list votes, specially in Lombardia as like in the past September general election, pollsters projections FdI becomes the most voted party within Cdx outrating Lega (FdI 23-26%/Lega 15-16%/FI 7%/Fontana civic list 6-7%)

Official election results page from the Internal Affairs Ministry: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/regionali/scrutini/20230212/scrutiniRI

[MRCVzla]

Today was the last stage of the PD leadership primary (the popular vote primary) between Emilia-Romagna presidente Stefano Bonaccini (representing the liberal wing) and his former deputy and now MP Elly Schlein (from the left-wing). First extraofficial data says Schlein leading (mostly data comes from the North and the cities) but they are now reports of Bonaccini having a landslide in the South. Stay tuned. Anyway the projections says they will be the lowest turnout for a PD primary ever (around 1.2 million votes).

Also yesterday was the party congress of the social-liberal +Europa (who was close to the 3% threshold to get full PR seats in the past September general election), in a pact between internal factions, 1 of the 2 MPs of the party, the radical Riccardo Magi is the new General Secretary (aka, the leader) while former Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti becames the new President of the party. The direction of +Europa now is being close to the "third pole" of Azione/Italia Viva in order to get a sole "Renew Europe" joint list for next year' European elections (the test for the united "third pole" list will be in the upcoming Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional elections, later this year)

[MRCVzla]

The Azione-Italia Viva alliance has imploded... or at least the Calenda' idea of a "single liberal Renew Europe party", Renzi' Italia Viva rejected the idea of dissolve his party into that new subject and Calenda leaked the papers of the internal negotiation denying that in case of merging, both Azione and IV parties remain active. Italian media claims this as a "divorce", for now they still have merged groups at the Parliament and have the will to continue the electoral alliance if the climate of the relationship is restored.

[MRCVzla]

Roberto Speranza has announced today the dissolution of Articolo Uno within PD. A political association called "Compagno è il mondo" (Partner is the World) will custody the "political cultural ideal" of Art.1 in PD.
https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1667554187612176384
https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1667586831905443843