My money is that Kennedy backs out, but I've been burned before, and there's still a 30% chance he'll run even in my mind. His business connections have been laying off people if I remember right from a while back, and that don't play that well. On the other hand, his last name plays well.
Alexi will still probably be challenged by that old Blago spokesman (lol), that woman who is the head of some Chicago African-American organization that I forget...Cheryl Jackson or something? Anyway, she could bleed some of the raw name-based votes for Kennedy in a primary....
Also, everyone knows Obama would prefer his basketball bff. Muon, maybe you can answer my question, but wouldn't a few ads cut by Obama, targeted at the suburbs, go a long way in sinking Kirk?
I think the strength of those ads will depend on Obama's performance nationally at the time. We don't know how much of the economy will stick. Consider the GM bankruptcy/takeover. We have a local dealer of over 40 years that has been cut from GM. Long time residents are quite unhappy to hear about it, and the feds are being blamed at least in part. The actual termination for dealerships becomes effective Oct '10, and will again draw publicity which doesn't time well with the election.
