538.com map

[muon2]

Illinois? Really? Illinois?

You sure?

538 uses 95% as their cutoff for "solid" and 80-95% for "likely". Personally, given their methodology, I would have used 90% instead of 95% as the cut off. That would keep IL is the solid despite poll fluctuations that  allow IL to drop to 92% in their projection. However, I'm not privy to the rationale behind the 95% cut, and I can only presume that they didn't like the balance of some states at 90%.

[muon2]

The likely EV totals on 538 are showing an unusual situation with just 2 combinations accounting for over one quarter of the possible outcomes. Recently there have been a half dozen or more spikes, but this current analysis points to states basically locked in with little chance of movement.

The two spikes correspond to 364 and 375 EV. The first is Kerry + NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL. The second combination adds IN to that.

[muon2]

The likely EV totals on 538 are showing an unusual situation with just 2 combinations accounting for over one quarter of the possible outcomes. Recently there have been a half dozen or more spikes, but this current analysis points to states basically locked in with little chance of movement.

The two spikes correspond to 364 and 375 EV. The first is Kerry + NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL. The second combination adds IN to that.

It's become even more polarized on 538 after this week's polling. The combination with 375 EV now dominates and makes up almost 20% of their simulated outcomes. That is equivalent to saying that there is very little left for tossups, since they give the flexibility to create additional combinations. I suspect it is also due to the closeness of the election date, since there is less time now for states to shift.



There also seems very little more for Obama to get in their model. It drops off precipitously after 378 EV, and I see no combinations beyond 410 EV.

[muon2]

The two spikes correspond to 364 and 375 EV. The first is Kerry + NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL. The second combination adds IN to that.

There also seems very little more for Obama to get in their model. It drops off precipitously after 378 EV, and I see no combinations beyond 410 EV.

378 = The above plus ND or MT. The above + ND, MT, WV, GA = 401. Where are the remaining 9 EV's for 410 coming from? AR and SD? LA? One CD is NE and, what? SC? KY? Two CDs in NE and... well, any combination that includes two NE EVs that I can find includes a wholly unreasonable state. (Either ID and a 3-voter, or OK.) Perhaps I'm wrong in insisting on including WV in getting to 410 though.

I based the 410 from my reading of their graph, and as such that number is my eye's best estimate. I can only speculate on what combinations their model uses to fill those few points that appear to be between 400 and 410. I can take MT, ND, GA and 2 CD's in NE all of which currently show up with at least 10% chance for Obama in their projection to get to 398. WV is at 4% so that gets to 403. 538 has AR, LA, and MS all at 1% so I assume that some of their simulations took at least one of those to Obama as well.

[muon2]

I have seen comments on a number of threads that suggest that though there might be some tightening of the race towards McCain, the state polls disagree and remain solid for Obama. As a counterpoint I would note the significant increase in combinations in the EC moving toward McCain on 538. That is indicative of movement detected by the 538 analysis.

It's become even more polarized on 538 after this week's polling. The combination with 375 EV now dominates and makes up almost 20% of their simulated outcomes. That is equivalent to saying that there is very little left for tossups, since they give the flexibility to create additional combinations. I suspect it is also due to the closeness of the election date, since there is less time now for states to shift.



There also seems very little more for Obama to get in their model. It drops off precipitously after 378 EV, and I see no combinations beyond 410 EV.

[muon2]

Generally speaking, this is because McCain has made gains in the states he has absolutely no business losing -- North Carolina and Indiana, and maybe Missouri (although the polling there is ambiguous). None of these states win McCain the election, they just reduce the Obama landslide. McCain hasn't made gains in any of the essential states, however.

I agree that none of this gets McCain to 270. But it does show movement at the state level, at least based on the 538 analysis. Tightening in the heavily contested states makes sense, just as the hard Obama states may well be seeing an excess surge away from McCain due to last month resource allocation with bandwagon effect in those solid O states.